Game Analysis

Kansas City (-3.5) vs JACKSONVILLE

• The Jaguars rank 3rd in pass blocking efficiency but I believe it is a mirage as they’ve done it against the Panthers, Bengals, and 49ers without Nick Bosa. Jacksonville’s offense has only trailed for a league-low 5.3% of their snaps and it remains to be seen how this line will hold up if they are chasing a game like they could be on Monday night.
• The Jaguars offensive line ranked 20th in week 3 pass blocking efficiency when they played the Texans. The Chiefs have a 44% pressure rate (4th).
• Jacksonville’s offensive line could be without starting RG Patrick Mekari for this game. Mekari ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency and backup Cole Van Lanen would struggle across from iDL Chris Jones, who has 15 pressures (2nd).
• The Jaguars will also likely be without a couple of starters on defense in S Eric Murray and edge rusher Travon Walker, who has 14 pressures (23rd). Those two are worth 0.7 points combined according to our metrics.
• Kansas City RG Trey Smith ranks 12th in pass blocking efficiency, and the Pro Bowler will contain iDL Arik Armstead, who has 13 pressures (7th). It will be up to Jacksonville edge defender Josh Hines-Allen to put pressure on Patrick Mahomes likely against chips and double teams.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 5.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, but Jacksonville applies to a very good 91-28-1 ATS situation and a 62-23-1 ATS Monday night home team situation. I used Jacksonville in my spread pool.