Game Analysis

Kansas City (-3) vs JACKSONVILLE

Lean – Under (51)

· Travis Kelce will make his season debut on Sunday, but it will likely be on a snap count with the bone bruise on his knee not fully healed. We saw Kansas City’s receivers lose the game for them in the opener without Kelce on the field. Kelce is worth a point and a half by our metrics, so we’ll be adjusting the Chiefs offense down by 0.7 points in this game with Kelce likely to play around half his usual amount.

· However, Patrick Mahomes should be firing it into Kelce every chance he gets as Jacksonville’s defense surrendered a league-high 9.5 yards per target to TEs in 2022.

· Kansas City’s new tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor were a little rocky in their debut, but it was mostly because Mahomes held onto the ball for a league-high 3.39-second average time to throw. Mahomes will need to get the ball out much quicker this week with Jaguars edge defenders Josh Allen and Travon Walker bearing down on him as the pair combined for 4 sacks last Sunday versus the Colts.

· Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice led the Chiefs averaging 0.13 EPA/target, all out of the slot. Rice isn’t likely to sustain his production across from Jacksonville nickelback Tre Herndon, who conceded only 0.08 yards per cover snap in the slot during week 1.

· Chris Jones will be back for Kansas City’s defense. Jones at full strength is worth 1.3 points after leading all DTs last season with 77 pressures. However, I don’t think we can expect a full workload for Jones off the street. Jones is reportedly taking every rep in practice,  implying he is in solid shape, but I am projecting him for half the Chiefs snaps on defense. Kansas City’s interior defenders recorded only one pressure last week against the Lions without Jones and there will be a major drop off on the snaps Jones misses this week as well.

· Trevor Lawrence had a 64% success rate when targeting new WR Calvin Ridley in week 1. Kansas City’s defense will counter Ridley with best CB L’Jarius Sneed leaving a gap in the slot for WR Christian Kirk to profit from.

· These teams met in the playoffs last season and the Chiefs closed as a 9-point favorite. The flip in home field is worth about 15% implying this line should be Kansas City -4.5. I think we’re seeing this price come in a little short of that due to the uncertainty with Kelce and Jones because Jacksonville is basically rolling the same team out there minus the two starting tackles and adding Ridley.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points, but Kansas City is 16-5 ATS after a loss when not laying more than 7 points.