Game Analysis
Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over Kansas City
Kansas City ranked as the second best offense of the decade, by our numbers, in Patrick Mahomes first season under center, trailing only the 2013 Denver Broncos. It is unlikely the Chiefs will be able to maintain last year’s pace, but despite some expected regression we still have the Kansas City’s offense rated highest in the league by nearly 2 points. However, in the season opener Mahomes and Andy Reid will face one of the league’s most talented defenses. Mahomes threw for no touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and 7.6 yards per pass play against the Jaguars last year, a half yard per pass play worse than his season average. Jacksonville has as good a shot of anybody to slow down this Chiefs attack, especially with Jalen Ramsey reportedly shadowing Tyreek Hill.
The Jaguars offense has potential as well. John DeFilippo comes in at offensive coordinator and he is one of the better play callers in the league despite getting fired by Minnesota last season for a difference in philosophy. DeFilippo also served as Nick Foles’ quarterback coach during the Super Bowl season. Kansas City has the worst outside cornerbacks in the NFL, but the Jaguars do not necessarily have the talent at receiver to expose them. Jacksonville’s offensive line looks shaky, but the Chiefs pass rush will take a step back this season after adding only Frank Clark to replace Justin Houston and Dee Ford’s production (both ranked top 5 in pass rushing efficiency). The Jaguars success on offense this season will come down to whether head coach Doug Marrone and exec Tom Coughlin give DeFilippo free reign to call the offense he wants with Foles. Otherwise, the offense will likely fail if an emphasis is put on the ground game, as Leonard Fournette is one of the worst workhorse running backs in the league with just a 35% success rate since entering the NFL.
The Chiefs could struggle to score at the level they’re used to in this game, while Jacksonville’s offense still has a number of unknowns. Our model favors Kansas City by about a point, with a predicted total of 50.4, and the Jaguars apply to an 85-34-3 ATS week 1 contrary angle. I’ll lean with the home dog.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.3
42.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.2%
46.2%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.9%
21.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.6%
40.0%
-
NYPP
8.1
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.0
27.0
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
18.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.8%
57.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.7%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
69.8
-
Early Down Succ
54.7%
52.4%
-
Succ Rate
53.0%
50.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
52.3%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.8
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.1
-
Run Ratio
38.5%
38.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
25.9
-
Game Control
6.9
-6.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.8
33.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.3%
43.2%
-
Sack Rate
10.2%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
17.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.2%
36.5%
-
NYPP
5.0
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.0
27.1
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
21.9%
24.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.2%
38.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.3%
42.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
45.6%
44.6%
-
Succ Rate
44.1%
41.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.4%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
29.6
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
44.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
29.3
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% /
55.8% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
9.1 /
8.0 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
25.9% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
55 /
74 |
55.6% /
61.3% |
52.7% /
56.8% |
66.0% /
45.1% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
29.7% |
29.1 /
20.1 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% /
50.8% |
3.4% /
1.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
7.2 |
48.0% /
38.5% |
16.0% /
23.1% |
5.1 /
2.5 |
54 /
74 |
63.8% /
51.7% |
59.3% /
48.6% |
56.3% /
35.2% |
8.3 /
6.4 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
17.6% |
30.3 /
21.8 |
| 3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
51.7% |
17.9% /
24.1% |
2.8 /
6.1 |
68 /
63 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
52.9% /
47.6% |
28.4% /
42.9% |
5.6 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
46.0% |
26.8 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
2.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
69.2% /
72.7% |
15.4% /
18.2% |
5.5 /
7.2 |
72 /
59 |
59.3% /
53.3% |
56.9% /
47.5% |
48.9% /
59.7% |
6.2 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
37.3% |
30.6 /
24.2 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
51.3% /
42.4% |
2.6% /
7.6% |
5.3% /
6.6% |
7.6 /
6.1 |
30.0% /
70.6% |
26.7% /
5.9% |
4.2 /
5.9 |
69 /
83 |
45.5% /
48.4% |
42.0% /
48.2% |
49.5% /
49.8% |
6.1 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
43.5% /
20.5% |
21.3 /
28.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.8 |
70.6% /
65.8% |
17.6% /
15.8% |
5.5 /
4.6 |
53 /
75 |
59.5% /
60.0% |
56.6% /
57.3% |
55.4% /
45.0% |
8.4 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
32.1% /
50.7% |
39.9 /
30.6 |
| 7 |
CIN |
45 – 10 W |
19.4 |
61.0% /
42.9% |
4.9% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
8.6 /
5.0 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
70 /
54 |
54.4% /
47.6% |
57.1% /
44.4% |
52.5% /
42.3% |
7.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.2% |
24.0 /
26.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
30 – 23 W |
4.5 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
5.6% /
12.8% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
8.1 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
66.7% |
16.7% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
54 /
69 |
46.5% /
55.4% |
44.4% /
52.2% |
42.4% /
57.7% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
38.0 /
23.3 |
| 9 |
@CLE |
37 – 21 W |
10.7 |
61.8% /
46.7% |
5.9% /
4.4% |
3.1% /
2.3% |
10.6 /
6.4 |
58.3% /
56.0% |
29.2% /
24.0% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
58 /
70 |
61.7% /
51.9% |
60.3% /
50.0% |
62.1% /
26.0% |
8.6 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.7% |
33.3 /
21.8 |
| 10 |
ARI |
26 – 14 W |
8.0 |
54.5% /
36.4% |
15.2% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
6.4 /
3.8 |
47.8% /
60.0% |
34.8% /
8.0% |
5.1 /
3.8 |
56 /
69 |
56.8% /
44.2% |
51.8% /
44.9% |
58.5% /
34.2% |
5.9 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.1% /
36.2% |
36.2 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@LA |
51 – 54 L |
-4.5 |
59.2% /
46.3% |
6.1% /
9.3% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
7.0 |
45.0% /
42.9% |
5.0% /
23.8% |
4.9 /
3.6 |
69 /
75 |
55.2% /
48.3% |
55.1% /
45.3% |
57.7% /
49.5% |
7.9 /
6.1 |
2.9% /
2.7% |
29.0% /
28.0% |
27.5 /
26.0 |
| 13 |
@OAK |
40 – 33 W |
10.1 |
55.3% /
48.8% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
53.3% /
67.9% |
16.7% /
17.9% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
68 /
69 |
57.7% /
52.6% |
54.4% /
56.5% |
52.9% /
49.8% |
6.9 /
6.4 |
1.5% /
4.3% |
44.1% /
40.6% |
29.9 /
31.7 |
| 14 |
BAL |
27 – 24 W |
1.6 |
53.6% /
41.4% |
5.4% /
10.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
55.6% /
56.4% |
25.9% /
10.3% |
3.5 /
5.1 |
83 /
68 |
55.6% /
52.8% |
54.2% /
50.0% |
28.3% /
25.5% |
5.3 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
32.5% /
57.4% |
30.2 /
29.8 |
| 15 |
LAC |
28 – 29 L |
8.7 |
47.2% /
48.8% |
5.6% /
11.6% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
6.5 /
6.7 |
70.6% /
58.3% |
23.5% /
16.7% |
3.5 /
5.0 |
53 /
67 |
53.5% /
50.0% |
54.7% /
52.2% |
29.6% /
46.4% |
5.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.1% /
35.8% |
28.3 /
23.0 |
| 16 |
@SEA |
31 – 38 L |
-3.8 |
48.8% /
53.1% |
2.4% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
7.9 |
78.9% /
46.5% |
10.5% /
18.6% |
8.1 /
4.9 |
60 /
75 |
61.7% /
51.7% |
58.3% /
49.3% |
44.9% /
50.6% |
7.0 /
6.2 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
57.3% |
28.9 /
30.7 |
| 17 |
OAK |
35 – 3 W |
20.6 |
55.6% /
52.8% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
3.7% /
6.1% |
11.5 /
4.6 |
40.7% /
62.1% |
25.9% /
24.1% |
3.7 /
4.4 |
54 /
65 |
48.8% /
59.3% |
48.1% /
56.9% |
60.1% /
13.4% |
7.6 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
50.0% /
44.6% |
32.7 /
23.4 |
| 19 |
IND |
31 – 13 W |
14.0 |
46.7% /
38.5% |
8.9% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
4.6 |
48.5% /
57.1% |
18.2% /
21.4% |
5.5 /
6.2 |
78 /
53 |
50.0% /
51.2% |
47.4% /
43.4% |
42.0% /
47.0% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
1.3% /
1.9% |
42.3% /
26.4% |
24.8 /
28.6 |
| 20 |
NE |
31 – 37 L |
-5.1 |
42.9% /
60.9% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
7.1 /
7.6 |
58.3% /
52.1% |
25.0% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
3.7 |
47 /
94 |
47.4% /
54.2% |
46.8% /
56.4% |
105.5% /
36.3% |
6.2 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.5% /
51.1% |
28.5 /
29.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NYG |
20 – 15 W |
3.9 |
44.1% /
28.2% |
2.9% /
5.1% |
3.0% /
2.7% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
39.3% /
34.8% |
17.9% /
30.4% |
4.9 /
5.0 |
62 /
62 |
46.8% /
31.9% |
41.9% /
30.6% |
39.0% /
38.0% |
4.9 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
45.2% /
37.1% |
31.5 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
NE |
31 – 20 W |
13.1 |
57.8% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.9 |
37.5% /
37.5% |
16.7% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
3.4 |
69 /
61 |
46.3% /
47.9% |
50.7% /
44.3% |
42.9% /
38.4% |
7.0 /
5.0 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
34.8% /
39.3% |
25.7 /
30.1 |
| 3 |
TEN |
6 – 9 L |
-1.5 |
37.8% /
45.8% |
8.1% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
52.6% /
42.9% |
15.8% /
25.7% |
4.6 /
4.3 |
56 /
59 |
46.3% /
47.7% |
42.9% /
44.1% |
10.3% /
34.3% |
4.1 /
3.9 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
59.3% |
23.3 /
28.2 |
| 4 |
NYJ |
31 – 12 W |
10.3 |
57.5% /
32.4% |
5.0% /
8.1% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
3.9 |
38.2% /
28.6% |
20.6% /
35.7% |
3.7 /
2.4 |
74 /
51 |
50.0% /
35.1% |
48.6% /
31.4% |
50.5% /
23.6% |
6.8 /
3.5 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
27.5% |
26.8 /
29.8 |
| 5 |
@KC |
14 – 30 L |
-14.4 |
42.4% /
51.3% |
7.6% /
2.6% |
6.6% /
5.3% |
6.1 /
7.6 |
70.6% /
30.0% |
5.9% /
26.7% |
5.9 /
4.2 |
83 /
69 |
48.4% /
45.5% |
48.2% /
42.0% |
49.8% /
49.5% |
6.0 /
6.1 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
20.5% /
43.5% |
28.3 /
21.3 |
| 6 |
@DAL |
7 – 40 L |
-18.5 |
48.3% /
36.7% |
10.3% /
10.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
5.7 |
38.9% /
45.2% |
16.7% /
23.8% |
3.6 /
4.9 |
47 /
72 |
48.6% /
39.6% |
44.7% /
41.7% |
32.4% /
45.0% |
4.3 /
5.3 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
38.3% /
58.3% |
26.4 /
37.8 |
| 7 |
HOU |
7 – 20 L |
-10.6 |
47.8% /
36.0% |
8.7% /
4.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
5.2 |
31.8% /
54.1% |
27.3% /
13.5% |
3.2 /
3.8 |
68 /
62 |
41.7% /
47.7% |
42.6% /
46.8% |
13.1% /
21.3% |
3.8 /
4.4 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
59.7% |
20.0 /
36.3 |
| 8 |
PHI |
18 – 24 L |
-2.2 |
44.4% /
52.9% |
8.9% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
5.9 /
7.7 |
64.7% /
46.4% |
17.6% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
4.8 |
62 /
62 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
50.0% /
50.0% |
34.3% /
63.0% |
5.4 /
6.4 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
27.4% /
45.2% |
29.0 /
26.9 |
| 10 |
@IND |
26 – 29 L |
-7.6 |
56.4% /
55.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
8.3 /
9.8 |
50.0% /
34.8% |
32.4% /
34.8% |
2.7 /
3.5 |
73 /
52 |
50.9% /
47.4% |
53.4% /
46.2% |
37.3% /
60.9% |
5.7 /
7.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.6% /
44.2% |
31.0 /
24.1 |
| 11 |
PIT |
16 – 20 L |
6.1 |
25.0% /
44.9% |
25.0% /
4.1% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
2.7 /
6.1 |
53.5% /
36.4% |
20.9% /
27.3% |
4.2 /
2.4 |
67 /
60 |
46.9% /
51.1% |
43.3% /
43.3% |
44.9% /
49.2% |
3.6 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
64.2% /
18.3% |
32.1 /
26.2 |
| 12 |
@BUF |
21 – 24 L |
-4.4 |
42.3% /
36.8% |
11.5% /
0.0% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
8.4 |
53.8% /
48.6% |
23.1% /
17.1% |
5.8 /
4.8 |
65 /
54 |
51.9% /
52.4% |
49.2% /
44.4% |
62.8% /
50.8% |
5.1 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
64.8% |
24.6 /
31.5 |
| 13 |
IND |
6 – 0 W |
2.3 |
44.4% /
41.8% |
11.1% /
5.5% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
33.3% /
18.8% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
54 /
71 |
38.5% /
42.0% |
38.9% /
36.6% |
16.1% /
11.7% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
22.5% |
21.9 /
31.0 |
| 14 |
@TEN |
9 – 30 L |
-13.6 |
42.6% /
56.0% |
8.5% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
4.1 /
6.5 |
60.0% /
46.9% |
20.0% /
28.1% |
3.0 /
8.3 |
67 /
57 |
57.1% /
51.2% |
47.8% /
50.9% |
34.9% /
61.0% |
3.8 /
7.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
29.9% /
56.1% |
24.3 /
33.5 |
| 15 |
WAS |
13 – 16 L |
1.6 |
17.4% /
39.3% |
26.1% /
10.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
0.9 /
4.9 |
42.3% /
39.4% |
23.1% /
33.3% |
6.6 /
3.3 |
49 /
61 |
27.8% /
37.8% |
30.6% /
39.3% |
67.7% /
30.2% |
3.9 /
4.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
53.1% /
54.1% |
23.9 /
31.5 |
| 16 |
@MIA |
17 – 7 W |
0.7 |
36.7% /
44.0% |
20.0% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
53.1% /
27.8% |
21.9% /
27.8% |
3.9 /
3.4 |
62 /
43 |
46.8% /
41.2% |
45.2% /
37.2% |
27.9% /
39.9% |
3.9 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
2.3% |
51.6% /
41.9% |
36.8 /
24.1 |
| 17 |
@HOU |
3 – 20 L |
-9.3 |
32.3% /
41.5% |
9.7% /
14.6% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
2.9 /
5.1 |
18.8% /
42.4% |
37.5% /
15.2% |
1.9 /
4.1 |
47 /
74 |
29.4% /
44.4% |
27.7% /
41.9% |
18.5% /
36.5% |
2.5 /
4.6 |
2.1% /
1.4% |
34.0% /
44.6% |
25.4 /
31.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs
@ 
Jacksonville Jaguars