Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – First Half Over (25) – Kansas City (-5.5) vs INDIANAPOLIS

· Frank Reich has a clear track record of producing points with exactly this kind of offense so I’m not going to take too much from the Colts getting shut out without two starting wide receivers in a game with scoring conditions more than 4 points worse than average.

· Additionally, Matt Ryan had two touchdowns dropped in week 1. Indianapolis is in line for a get-right game on offense.

· Chiefs LB Willie Gay is suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy and he likely will be replaced by Leo Chenal. Colts RB Nyheim Hines is averaging 2.42 yards per route run (3rd) and he has a favorable matchup on Sunday. Kansas City’s defense allowed 6.8 yards per target to opposing RBs last season (26th) and now defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is throwing a backup rookie linebacker into the fire.

· Chiefs DT Chris Jones finished with a game-high five total pressures last Thursday night and ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency this season. Jones will be bottled up in this game by All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson and center Ryan Kelly, who has conceded only one pressure this year.

· Colts’ WR Michael Pittman had 121 yards in week 1 and he is set to return this week. Pittman will exploit Kansas City backup CB Jaylen Watson. Indianapolis starting WR Alec Pierce should also be back in uniform.

· Patrick Mahomes crushes Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley because he refuses to switch his game plan of using two-high coverages. The Chiefs scored a total of 89 points in two games against Bradley’s Raiders last season with Mahomes gaining 7.9 yppp.

· Bradley has not switched his philosophy with the change of scenery in Indianapolis. His defense once again leads the NFL in Cover 3 usage (only safety in a deep zone).

· Our model has the Chiefs by 4.8 points with a predicted total of 52.1 points.

· I think both offenses will push to start hot due to the shut out last week by the Colts and Kansas City frustrated to the tune of just 20 points of offense against the Chargers. The first-half Over is a Strong Opinion at 26 or less. If you don’t have first-half lines then the alternate play is the game over 51 or less.