Kansas City Chiefs @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 8
5:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Houston Texans +1, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – HOUSTON (+1) vs Kansas City

The Texans managed to score 57 points last week on just 5.7 yppl, as they were helped by 5 Titans turnovers setting them up with short fields, which led to a whopping 9 Rezone opportunities. DeShaun Watson, now 3-0 ATS as a starter, was impressive again and for the second straight week he’s averaged more than 7.5 yppp.

Kansas City’s offense remains at the top in my ratings after beating Washington on Monday night. The Chiefs ended up winning by 9 on a last second ‘not-so-meaningless’ touchdown, but the game was pretty much a stalemate in my metrics. Both Washington touchdowns came against Chiefs top cornerback, Marcus Peters, and he’ll have a tough matchup this week against DeAndre Hopkins. The Kansas City running game continued its dominance rushing for 5.4 yards per carry against a Redskins run defense that came into the week rated 5th in my metrics. The Chiefs will be challenged by another good defensive front in this game, as the Texans rank 9th in rush defense.  The line on this game is about right, as our model thinks it should be a pick’em game, but I’ll lean with Houston on the basis of a negative 127-212-11 ATS scheduling situation that applies to Kansas City.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Texans
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.0 39.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.2% 39.8%
  • Sack Rate 12.4% 6.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 29.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.8% 48.7%
  • NYPP 6.9 6.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.0 26.5
  • RB YPR 6.4 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 18.7% 23.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.0% 48.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 59.1% 50.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 6.1 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 61.0 65.8
  • Early Down Succ 54.1% 45.3%
  • Succ Rate 49.6% 43.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 49.3% 48.4%
  • Yards Per Play 6.6 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.7 26.0
  • Run Ratio 44.1% 41.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.2 25.9
  • Game Control 1.0 -1.0
 
  • Points 30.5 19.3
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