Game Analysis
Lean – HOUSTON (+1) vs Kansas City
The Texans managed to score 57 points last week on just 5.7 yppl, as they were helped by 5 Titans turnovers setting them up with short fields, which led to a whopping 9 Rezone opportunities. DeShaun Watson, now 3-0 ATS as a starter, was impressive again and for the second straight week he’s averaged more than 7.5 yppp.
Kansas City’s offense remains at the top in my ratings after beating Washington on Monday night. The Chiefs ended up winning by 9 on a last second ‘not-so-meaningless’ touchdown, but the game was pretty much a stalemate in my metrics. Both Washington touchdowns came against Chiefs top cornerback, Marcus Peters, and he’ll have a tough matchup this week against DeAndre Hopkins. The Kansas City running game continued its dominance rushing for 5.4 yards per carry against a Redskins run defense that came into the week rated 5th in my metrics. The Chiefs will be challenged by another good defensive front in this game, as the Texans rank 9th in rush defense. The line on this game is about right, as our model thinks it should be a pick’em game, but I’ll lean with Houston on the basis of a negative 127-212-11 ATS scheduling situation that applies to Kansas City.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.0
39.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.2%
39.8%
-
Sack Rate
12.4%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.3%
29.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.8%
48.7%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.0
26.5
-
RB YPR
6.4
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
18.7%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.0%
48.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
59.1%
50.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
6.1
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
61.0
65.8
-
Early Down Succ
54.1%
45.3%
-
Succ Rate
49.6%
43.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.3%
48.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.6
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.7
26.0
-
Run Ratio
44.1%
41.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
25.9
-
Game Control
1.0
-1.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
30.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.6%
43.1%
-
Sack Rate
11.0%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
5.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.9%
25.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.2%
48.0%
-
NYPP
5.5
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.0
26.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
19.7%
19.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.6%
43.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
19.8%
24.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
69.0
56.5
-
Early Down Succ
51.6%
47.1%
-
Succ Rate
49.1%
42.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
29.8%
44.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
28.0
-
Run Ratio
47.8%
46.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
30.0
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
42 – 27 W |
-1.8 |
60.5% / 33.3% |
7.9% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 6.3 |
42.4% / 50.0% |
9.1% / 25.0% |
5.7 / 3.5 |
71 / 75 |
63.5% / 46.4% |
52.1% / 41.3% |
53.7% / 54.8% |
7.6 / 5.0 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
46.5% / 48.0% |
25.5 / 27.8 |
2 |
PHI |
27 – 20 W |
2.0 |
50.0% / 44.2% |
12.5% / 11.5% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
7.3 / 5.8 |
47.4% / 58.8% |
26.3% / 17.6% |
5.9 / 6.3 |
51 / 69 |
51.3% / 46.3% |
49.0% / 47.8% |
45.3% / 42.4% |
6.7 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
37.3% / 24.6% |
35.6 / 26.1 |
3 |
@LAC |
24 – 10 W |
8.0 |
34.6% / 35.7% |
19.2% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
4.7 / 5.4 |
56.0% / 34.6% |
20.0% / 34.6% |
7.6 / 4.0 |
51 / 68 |
50.0% / 34.5% |
45.1% / 35.3% |
55.0% / 39.1% |
6.1 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.0% / 38.2% |
30.5 / 22.8 |
4 |
WAS |
29 – 20 W |
-4.3 |
47.5% / 45.8% |
10.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 9.2 |
58.1% / 51.9% |
19.4% / 14.8% |
5.4 / 4.1 |
71 / 51 |
51.7% / 54.1% |
52.1% / 49.0% |
43.4% / 57.2% |
6.0 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
43.7% / 52.9% |
21.2 / 26.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
JAC |
7 – 30 L |
-11.9 |
34.8% / 52.4% |
21.7% / 0.0% |
2.8% / 0.0% |
2.4 / 6.0 |
60.9% / 41.5% |
17.4% / 17.1% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
69 / 62 |
44.6% / 53.3% |
43.5% / 45.2% |
12.8% / 32.6% |
2.9 / 4.5 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 66.1% |
26.5 / 38.2 |
2 |
@CIN |
13 – 9 W |
1.4 |
40.7% / 31.6% |
11.1% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.6 / 5.6 |
51.4% / 54.2% |
31.4% / 16.7% |
4.8 / 3.4 |
62 / 62 |
53.2% / 44.4% |
46.8% / 40.3% |
39.1% / 41.0% |
4.3 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
56.5% / 38.7% |
24.1 / 31.2 |
3 |
@NE |
33 – 36 L |
-1.2 |
48.6% / 47.5% |
5.7% / 12.5% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 8.4 |
56.3% / 45.0% |
15.6% / 30.0% |
3.9 / 3.0 |
67 / 60 |
54.7% / 46.8% |
52.2% / 46.7% |
38.8% / 52.3% |
6.2 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
47.8% / 33.3% |
24.0 / 28.8 |
4 |
TEN |
57 – 14 W |
20.6 |
58.3% / 40.9% |
5.6% / 9.1% |
2.9% / 20.0% |
7.6 / 5.0 |
50.0% / 35.0% |
14.3% / 15.0% |
4.1 / 4.4 |
78 / 42 |
53.8% / 43.8% |
53.8% / 38.1% |
28.5% / 52.6% |
5.7 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 2.4% |
53.8% / 47.6% |
38.0 / 21.9 |