Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *DENVER (+8) over Kansas City

· The Chiefs and Broncos met two weeks ago on Thursday night with Kansas City’s offense posting a 50.7% success rate compared to Denver’s 43.1% success rate. However, neither offense could get any explosive pass plays due to high 30 mph wind gusts.

· Russell Wilson averaged 3.2 yppp in Kansas City but I expect him to be much better on Sunday with no wind gusts to deal with.

· Sean Payton couldn’t close the talent gap with scheme on a short week in the first meeting with the Chiefs, but he should have the Broncos much more prepared this week. Payton is 15-4-1 ATS in same-season revenge games, including 10 straight spread wins.

· Chiefs’ interior defender Chris Jones has 28 pressures (3rd) but he will be limited by Denver RG Quinn Meinerz, who ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey has surrendered 28 pressures (2nd-most) and he will struggle versus edge defender George Karlaftis, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Kansas City’s defense is vulnerable on the ground allowing 0.06 EPA/rush (31st) and Denver, averaging 5.1 yards per carry (4th), should have success on the ground.

· Denver’s defense is surrendering a league-high 69% success rate to tight ends and.a 54% pass success rate to running backs (31st). Starting safety Kareem Jackson is suspended, which could make things worse. Travis Kelce and RB Isiah Pacheco combined for 15 receptions last game against Denver and should be just as successful.

· Patrick Mahomes will likely look for his tight ends and running backs again in this game, which will keep his average depth of target low. Mahomes averaged only 4.3 air yards per attempt in week 6.

· Broncos edge rusher Baron Browning suited up for his first game of the season last week. Browning led the team with 36 pressures last season. Browning has a favorable matchup across from Kansas City LT Donovan Smith, whose 6 pressures allowed last week were 2nd-most among week 7 tackles.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.9 points, but the Broncos apply to a 432-282-17 ATS indicator that is based on the large disparity in the season to date spread records of these teams and Kansas City apply to a 48-119-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on last week’s impressive 31-17 win over the Chargers. Denver has been assigned my highest technical analysis rating and those games have been highly profitable over 20-plus years since I’ve been tracking them, including 58.4% winners the last 10 years.

Denver is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7.5 -115 odds or better.