Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The Over was released to my subscribers as a Strong Opinion when the total was at 48 points. It has since moved back up but I still lean with the Over.

Strong Opinion – Over (48) – Kansas City at DENVER

Lean – Kansas City (-3)

The Colts and Texans beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead in consecutive weeks because they were able to control the clock and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. Kansas City’s offense had less than 23 minutes of possession in both games. However, Houston and Indianapolis both rank in the top 10 in rushing efficiency while Denver ranks 26th in that metric and doesn’t figure to have the same level of success on the ground. Subsequently, Joe Flacco will need to keep pace with the Chiefs and air-it-out on Thursday night. Flacco should have time in the pocket as Kansas City’s defense will be without Chris Jones, who ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders. Frank Clark has been a huge disappointment ranking 4th-worst in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders and probably won’t turn it around this week across from solid left tackle Garett Bolles. The Chiefs will be without nickelback Kendall Fuller but it is unlikely the Broncos will be able to take advantage with DaeSean Hamilton, who is gaining a league-low 0.65 yards per route run in the slot. However, Courtland Sutton has taken a step forward, averaging 2.34 yards per route run (8th), and the second-year receiver will be dangerous on the outside with Emmanuel Sanders.

Unfortunately we won’t see the return of Chiefs’ WR Sammy Watkins, who is gaining 2.25 yards per route run (10th), but Tyreek Hill is averaging 3.43 yards per route run and has returned to action. The Broncos have one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Chris Harris, who is surrendering just 0.63 yards per cover snap (6th), and he should limit Hill without Watkins on the field. Mahomes should have time to find his other receivers, as Denver’s only remaining pass rushing threat (with Bradley Chubb out) Von Miller will be limited by Mitchell Schwartz, the only tackle to rank in the top 5 in pass blocking efficiency in 2018 and 2019 thus far. Travis Kelce leads all tight ends with 497 receiving yards but he could struggle on Thursday. The Broncos allow only 6.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (6th) thanks to offseason addition safety Kareem Jackson and linebacker Todd Davis, who is conceding a league-low 0.47 yards per cover snap.

Denver’s offense will not be able to control the clock and I’m expecting the Chiefs to see more of the ball in this game. Neither team is likely to get much of a pass rush with Frank Clark and Von Miller limited and Chris Jones and Bradley Chubb both sidelined. Vic Fangio is a rookie head coach and may not have his preparation timing perfected for his Thursday night debut. The totals in the matchups between these two teams last season closed 54.5 and 53.5 and we think this game should be above 50 as well. Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.5 with a predicted total of 51.7 points and the Over is a Strong Opinion at 48 points or less (lean Over at 49 points). The model doesn’t show much value on the Chiefs but the superior team usually has an edge on a short week and Thursday favorites of 2 points or more are now 96-64-9 ATS since 2004.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Broncos

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.8 38.3
Succ Pass Plays 51.2% 48.6%
Sack Rate 3.2% 4.6%
Int Rate 0.5% 2.8%
Deep Pass Rate 27.5% 18.9%
Big Pass Yards 49.2% 32.8%
NYPP 8.6 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 20.7 31.3
RB YPR 3.5 5.3
Stuff Rate 28.0% 14.7%
Succ Rush Plays 48.1% 59.8%
Big Rush Yards 47.1% 43.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 5.4

Game

All Snaps 60.5 69.7
Early Down Succ 51.6% 56.9%
Succ Rate 50.0% 54.1%
Big Yards Rate 51.1% 38.6%
Yards Per Play 6.9 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 29.0
Run Ratio 33.6% 43.8%
Starting Field Pos 27.5 28.8
Game Control 4.4 -4.4

Points 28.7 24.0

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	40 – 26 W	11.7	58.8% / 52.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	0.0% / 3.0%	11.1 / 10.2	57.7% / 43.8%	26.9% / 12.5%	4.3 / 5.1	60 / 50	62.5% / 50.0%	58.3% / 50.0%	62.3% / 55.4%	8.2 / 8.6	0.0% / 2.0%	43.3% / 32.0%	38.4 / 23.8
2	@OAK	28 – 10 W	8.3	56.5% / 46.3%	4.3% / 7.3%	0.0% / 5.3%	9.4 / 4.3	36.4% / 52.6%	36.4% / 26.3%	1.4 / 6.8	68 / 60	49.1% / 48.9%	50.0% / 48.3%	62.3% / 38.4%	6.8 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	32.4% / 31.7%	26.2 / 25.3
3	BAL	33 – 28 W	7.1	57.9% / 34.8%	2.6% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 5.4	46.2% / 71.9%	26.9% / 6.3%	5.4 / 6.3	64 / 78	55.8% / 50.8%	53.1% / 50.0%	49.5% / 37.6%	7.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 41.0%	25.5 / 26.0
4	@DET	34 – 30 W	-1.3	50.0% / 50.0%	0.0% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 6.9	60.0% / 65.7%	24.0% / 20.0%	4.9 / 5.3	67 / 73	54.4% / 61.7%	53.7% / 57.5%	37.2% / 52.3%	6.5 / 6.1	4.5% / 2.7%	37.3% / 47.9%	22.5 / 33.3
5	IND	13 – 19 L	-1.9	39.5% / 48.3%	9.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.7 / 5.2	42.9% / 68.9%	35.7% / 11.1%	2.6 / 4.0	57 / 74	42.9% / 67.9%	40.4% / 60.8%	53.1% / 22.4%	5.7 / 4.5	1.8% / 0.0%	24.6% / 60.8%	25.1 / 32.0
6	HOU	24 – 31 L	2.6	44.4% / 59.5%	2.8% / 0.0%	2.9% / 4.8%	7.1 / 6.7	45.5% / 56.1%	18.2% / 12.2%	4.8 / 4.7	47 / 83	44.7% / 62.1%	44.7% / 57.8%	42.1% / 25.2%	6.6 / 5.7	2.1% / 1.2%	23.4% / 49.4%	27.2 / 32.4

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@OAK	16 – 24 L	-9.5	50.0% / 65.4%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 10.0	52.2% / 46.4%	26.1% / 14.3%	4.1 / 3.5	57 / 54	52.3% / 51.3%	50.9% / 55.6%	58.1% / 40.3%	6.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	40.4% / 51.9%	21.8 / 29.0
2	CHI	14 – 16 L	-2.6	50.0% / 40.7%	3.8% / 0.0%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.4	50.0% / 48.3%	25.0% / 20.7%	3.8 / 5.3	76 / 56	55.2% / 47.7%	50.0% / 44.6%	19.1% / 35.5%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	31.6% / 51.8%	24.6 / 20.5
3	@GB	16 – 27 L	-7.3	45.7% / 37.9%	17.1% / 0.0%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.6 / 8.1	60.5% / 52.2%	13.2% / 17.4%	3.9 / 3.3	73 / 52	52.7% / 50.0%	53.4% / 44.2%	40.0% / 45.2%	4.2 / 6.0	2.7% / 0.0%	52.1% / 44.2%	26.0 / 36.3
4	JAC	24 – 26 L	5.0	52.6% / 36.8%	0.0% / 13.2%	2.6% / 0.0%	8.0 / 4.9	43.8% / 50.0%	12.5% / 10.5%	4.3 / 7.1	54 / 76	54.8% / 45.9%	50.0% / 43.4%	52.3% / 52.1%	6.9 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	29.6% / 50.0%	27.0 / 24.0
5	@LAC	20 – 13 W	12.5	34.8% / 41.7%	13.0% / 0.0%	5.0% / 4.2%	6.9 / 4.4	50.0% / 31.3%	15.6% / 43.8%	6.0 / 2.2	55 / 64	48.8% / 42.9%	43.6% / 39.1%	60.6% / 8.1%	6.4 / 3.8	1.8% / 1.6%	58.2% / 25.0%	28.9 / 31.3
6	TEN	16 – 0 W	7.4	41.4% / 29.3%	3.4% / 17.1%	3.6% / 8.8%	5.8 / 4.0	30.0% / 33.3%	16.7% / 33.3%	3.4 / 1.9	59 / 62	44.2% / 37.8%	35.6% / 30.6%	26.3% / 12.3%	4.6 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 33.9%	23.4 / 30.6

Kansas City Chiefs @

Denver Broncos

Thu, Oct 17

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis