Kansas City Chiefs @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Dec 4
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals +2, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – First Half Over (26.5) – Kansas City (-2.5) vs CINCINNATI

· Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 14 touchdowns on deep sideline passes since the start of last season and I expect him to attack Kansas City’s rookie cornerbacks on the outside with WR Ja’Marr Chase returning this week after missing four games with a hairline hip fracture. WR Tee Higgins has held down the fort and up to 0.52 EPA/target (5th) despite getting more attention from defenses when Chase was sidelined.

· Bengals slot receiver Tyler Boyd is averaging 0.41 EPA/target (13th) but he will be shut down on the inside. Chiefs nickelback L’Jarius Sneed conceded only 9 yards into his coverage from 4 targets last week.

· Cincinnati rookie LG Cordell Volson is really having a welcome to the NFL stretch of the season going consecutively against Steelers interior defender Cam Heyward to Titans DT Jeffrey Simmons and now DT Chris Jones, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency.

· Kansas City’s ground game ranks 7th but the Bengals are getting much better at rush defense with interior defender DJ Reader back in uniform. Cincinnati’s defense is allowing just a 27.7% rush success rate with Reader on the field compared to a 44.4% rush success rate without Reader. The Bengals conceded only 38 yards from Derrick Henry’s 17 carries last week.

· Reader also ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency in the five weeks he’s suited up but he will be limited in this game by Chiefs LG Joe Thuney, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Patrick Mahomes will need TE Travis Kelce because Kansas City’s other top receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster could struggle on the inside this week. Smith-Schuster is averaging 0.54 EPA/target (3rd), but Cincinnati nickelback Mike Hilton is conceding only 0.91 yards per slot cover snap (4th).

· Cincinnati’s defense is allowing +0.044 EPA/play in the first half (19th) and -0.087 EPA/play in the second half (7th).

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 1.8 with a predicted total of 55.5.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Bengals
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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