Kansas City Chiefs @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Dec 22
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 479
Odds: Chicago Bears +6, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Over (44.5) – Kansas City (-6) vs CHICAGO

I think Kansas City’s offense is underrated as we head into the playoffs now that they are fully healthy, but we haven’t found a good spot to back them so far in December as they’ve faced two divisional opponents in tough weather conditions along with Bill Belichick coming off a loss. We’re also going to pass again this week because the Bears match-up well against the Chiefs and there’s a chance Kansas City will have nothing to play for if the Patriots beat the Bills and the Texans lose to the Buccaneers. Tyreek Hill is gaining 2.52 yards per route run (4th), but Eddie Jackson is one of the best centerfield safeties in the NFL and the Pro Bowler will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to find anything with the deep ball. Travis Kelce is averaging 2.30 yards per route run (6th) but Chicago’s defense is allowing only 6.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (4th). Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency and should limit Khalil Mack, but overall this is not a good matchup for the Chiefs’ attack.

Mitchell Trubisky’s performance has been all over the place in the second half of the season, but his short passing game has a chance to succeed on Sunday night against these KC linebackers. Damien Wilson and Anthony Hitchens are combining to surrender 1.39 yards per cover snap and the Bears are targeting running backs on 26.5% of passes (5th-most). The Chiefs defense added Terrell Suggs but I do not expect him to make much of an impact. Suggs ranks 8th-worst in pass rushing efficiency among 61 qualifying edge defenders this season.

Kansas City could rest some starters in this game depending on Saturday’s results. Our model currently favors the Chiefs by 4.0 with a predicted total of 47.0 assuming Kansas City fields their full squad.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Bears


  • Pass Plays 38.7 38.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.2% 43.8%
  • Sack Rate 4.3% 7.4%
  • Int Rate 0.8% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 18.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.8% 41.9%
  • NYPP 7.5 5.9


  • Rush Plays 23.1 26.4
  • RB YPR 3.7 4.9
  • Stuff Rate 22.8% 17.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.3% 53.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.9% 42.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 5.0


  • All Snaps 61.9 65.0
  • Early Down Succ 51.5% 51.0%
  • Succ Rate 49.8% 47.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.5% 42.9%
  • Yards Per Play 6.2 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 28.2
  • Run Ratio 37.3% 40.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.2 27.0
  • Game Control 5.7 -5.7
  • Points 28.1 20.3
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