Game Analysis

Lean – Under (43) – Kansas City (-11) vs CAROLINA

• Kansas City’s offense has a league-high 49% success rate this season which is the same as the 49% success rate the Chiefs have had since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018.
• However, Kansas City’s offense is averaging only 5.2 yards per play (19th) because it lacks explosiveness this year, particularly against zone coverage.
• Mahomes is averaging 0.27 EPA/dropback against man-coverage (5th) but -0.04 EPA/dropback versus zone coverage and the Chiefs are likely not to take many deep shots on Sunday as the Panthers have an 80% zone coverage rate (8th-highest).
• Carolina CB Jaycee Horn is conceding 0.70 yards per cover snap (9th) and he will likely neutralize WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is averaging 2.04 yards per route run since being traded to Kansas City.
• However, the Chiefs are averaging 21% more yppp versus single-high safety coverages than two-high (4th) and Mahomes will find holes in a Panthers defense with a 52% single-high safety rate (7th-highest).
• Carolina’s defense is surrendering 0.51 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (29th) and they will struggle with TE Travis Kelce, whose 59% success rate ranks 7th.
• Kansas City’s offense leads the NFL with a 46% rush success rate. The ground game has a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense allowing 0.04 EPA/rush (31st).
• Carolina’s offense has the 7th highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation, but they will be contained on the ground as the Chiefs are conceding only -0.17 EPA/rush (3rd).
• Our model suggests that the fair line in this game is Kansas City by 15.7 points, but bad teams tend to play well coming out of their bye week and Carolina applies to a 45-10 ATS situation that plays on teams that are 3 games or more below 0.500 and have a spread win percentage of <0.333 but are coming off their bye week. I still used KC in my pool, as the Chiefs would have been a Best Bet had it not been for the situation favoring the Panthers.
• The model predicted total is 42.4 points and I’ll Lean under based on the matchups.