Kansas City Chiefs @

Buffalo Bills

Mon, Oct 19
2:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 277
Odds: Buffalo Bills +5, Total: 57

Game Analysis

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Kansas City (-5) at BUFFALO

The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week and their offense looked less than impressive against the Patriots in week 4. However, Patrick Mahomes had over 100 passing yards negated by penalties against Las Vegas, including a 65-yard touchdown shot to Tyreek Hill that was one of the best throws of the year, and I do not think there is anything to worry about with Kansas City’s offense going forward. In fact, the Chiefs are averaging 2.9 points per drive this season compared to 2.7 points per drive in 2019.

Kansas City’s Pro Bowl receivers both have favorable matchups on Monday night. The Bills are the only team in the NFL to surrender more than 400 receiving yards to tight ends and they will struggle to contain Travis Kelce, who is averaging more than 2 yards per route run for the fifth-straight season. Taron Johnson is allowing 1.89 yard per cover snap in the slot, 4th-worst among qualifying nickelbacks. Jamison Crowder, Cooper Kupp and Isaiah Ford all had at least 75 yards against Buffalo’s defense primarily from the slot. Johnson will likely be exposed by Chiefs’ star Tyreek Hill, who runs 57% of routes from slot. The Chiefs also may benefit from the potential absences of All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White and starting LB Matt Milano, two of Buffalo’s best defenders in coverage.

Josh Allen will look to bounce-back from his first poor performance of the season last Tuesday night. Cole Beasley is averaging 2.52 yards per slot route run (4th) but he will be shut down by All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu. However, Stefon Diggs’ 509 receiving yards ranks 2nd in the NFL and Kansas City’s defense doesn’t really have an answer for him. I’ve been impressed with Brian Daboll’s play-calling this year as the Bills are now a borderline top 10 offense due to his emphasis on early down passing after averaging just 5.2 yards per play in 2019 .

Our model favors the Chiefs by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 57.6 points, in what looks to be a fun Monday night shootout with AFC seeding implications. The line value and the matchups favor the Chiefs but the situation is strongly in favor of the Bills, who apply to a 66-24-1 ATS Monday night home team situation and a 143-51-5 ATS situation that plays on underdogs after losing by 21 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Bills


  • Pass Plays 40.5 35.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.2% 53.5%
  • Sack Rate 2.6% 8.4%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 3.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 6.5% 22.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 16.6% 37.0%
  • NYPP 6.1 7.6


  • Rush Plays 28.0 33.0
  • RB YPR 4.7 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 14.8% 11.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.8% 61.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 51.9% 27.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.3 4.8


  • All Snaps 68.5 68.5
  • Early Down Succ 50.5% 60.7%
  • Succ Rate 51.2% 57.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.4% 33.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 27.9
  • Run Ratio 41.1% 46.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.8 22.0
  • Game Control 1.3 -1.3
  • Points 28.5 20.0
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