Game Analysis

Note: The line on Jacksonville has dropped to +3 and the Jaguars are a Strong Opinion at +3.

1-Star Best Bet – *Jacksonville (+3.5) over TENNESSEE

Lean – Under (39.5)

• Tennessee’s defense will likely be without starting CB Chidobe Awuzie, starting CB L’Jarius Sneed, and starting nickelback Roger McCreary, who is conceding just 0.95 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th).
• Mac Jones is averaging -0.14 EPA/play since the start of last season, which equates to an adjustment in Jacksonville’s season offensive rating of 3.4 points worse per game. Jones has proven that he can play better than that level and he should be able to move the ball versus a Titans secondary missing three starting cornerbacks as well as starting safety Quandre Diggs.
• Jones was heating up last week after Trevor Lawrence went out, as he averaged 7.3 yppp while establishing a rapport with Jaguars WR Brian Thomas, who is averaging 2.24 yards per route run (14th). Thomas has a favorable matchup across from backup rookie CB Jarvis Brownlee, who is surrendering 1.51 yards per cover snap (7th-worst).
• Jacksonville’s interior offensive line is only responsible for 38% of the allowed pressures (5th-fewest) and they will contain interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who has 31 pressures (17th).
• Jaguars edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen has 48 pressures (9th) and he will wreak havoc on Will Levis during this game. Tennessee left tackle JC Latham ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Levis has a 3.8% interception rate, ranking 34th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks, and I expect Jacksonville’s defense to get at least 1 interception on Sunday.
• Our model favors the Titans by just1.2 points, with a predicted total of 36.3 points, and Tennessee applies to a 26-88 ATS situation that applies to bad defensive teams as home favorites.

Jacksonville is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 -120 odds or better (Strong Opinion at +3).