Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs Jacksonville

Ryan Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL since taking over for Marcus Mariota. Tannehill is averaging 6.8 yards per pass play and has the highest completion percentage above expectation in the league according to Next Gen Stats. Backup tight end Jonnu Smith has been particularly effective with Tannehill behind center, as Smith has averaged 2.53 yards per route run. Starting TE Delaine Walker may return to the lineup this week, cutting into Smith’s workload, and it isn’t a good matchup for either of them. The Jaguars rank 5th against opposing tight ends by our numbers and are on pace to finish in the top 10 in that category for the 3rd-consecutive season under defensive coordinator Todd Walsh. Calais Campbell has an 18% pass rush win rate (5th) and will wreak havoc across from potentially the worst starting guard tandem in the NFL, Rodger Saffold and Nate Davis. The Titans have a 43.2% run play rate (10th) and I expect them to ride Derrick Henry versus Jacksonville’s 31^st-rated rush defense.

DJ Chark is basically the Jaguars only threat in the passing game, gaining 2.09 yards per route run (12th) and Nick Foles is targeting Chark on 31% of his attempts. However, the receiver is facing a difficult matchup this week against Adoree’ Jackson, who is surrendering only 0.86 yards per cover snap (17th). Leonard Fournette will be limited by Tennessee’s 2nd-rated rush defense with interior defender Jurrell Casey and 9.8% run stop rate (7th) likely returning to the lineup this week.

Tennessee is coming off a bye and our model favors the Titans by 5.9 points with a predicted total of 41.4 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Titans

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.6 36.6
Succ Pass Plays 43.5% 45.7%
Sack Rate 6.1% 8.7%
Int Rate 1.3% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 19.3%
Big Pass Yards 44.1% 43.4%
NYPP 6.5 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 25.2 25.6
RB YPR 4.1 4.8
Stuff Rate 23.4% 21.9%
Succ Rush Plays 38.5% 51.8%
Big Rush Yards 54.7% 51.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.9

Game

All Snaps 63.8 62.2
Early Down Succ 43.8% 51.7%
Succ Rate 41.5% 48.5%
Big Yards Rate 48.4% 49.4%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.2
Run Ratio 38.5% 41.0%
Starting Field Pos 26.0 29.7
Game Control -2.0 2.0

Points 18.9 22.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	26 – 40 L	-11.7	52.9% / 58.8%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	10.2 / 11.1	43.8% / 57.7%	12.5% / 26.9%	5.1 / 4.3	50 / 60	50.0% / 62.5%	50.0% / 58.3%	55.4% / 62.3%	8.6 / 8.2	2.0% / 0.0%	32.0% / 43.3%	23.8 / 38.4
2	@HOU	12 – 13 L	-3.3	40.5% / 36.4%	10.8% / 12.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.8 / 4.2	42.9% / 56.7%	14.3% / 16.7%	4.9 / 4.2	58 / 63	44.2% / 46.8%	41.4% / 46.0%	40.6% / 35.0%	4.8 / 4.2	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 47.6%	26.0 / 26.8
3	TEN	20 – 7 W	13.0	43.3% / 30.6%	0.0% / 18.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.1	15.0% / 53.8%	45.0% / 19.2%	4.4 / 3.5	50 / 75	37.8% / 36.8%	32.0% / 38.7%	56.8% / 57.1%	5.8 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.3%	40.0% / 34.7%	25.7 / 28.9
4	@DEN	26 – 24 W	-5.0	36.8% / 52.6%	13.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	4.9 / 8.0	50.0% / 43.8%	10.5% / 12.5%	7.1 / 4.3	76 / 54	45.9% / 54.8%	43.4% / 50.0%	52.1% / 52.3%	6.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 29.6%	24.0 / 27.0
5	@CAR	27 – 34 L	-5.8	52.2% / 44.1%	4.3% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 4.7	45.2% / 55.6%	25.8% / 18.5%	4.8 / 10.6	77 / 61	50.8% / 54.2%	49.4% / 49.2%	57.8% / 63.8%	6.6 / 7.3	3.9% / 0.0%	40.3% / 44.3%	22.9 / 28.8
6	NO	6 – 13 L	-2.4	38.7% / 48.7%	6.5% / 7.7%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 5.7	25.0% / 65.4%	16.7% / 19.2%	3.1 / 4.0	55 / 65	35.0% / 62.0%	32.7% / 55.4%	35.8% / 36.5%	4.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.6% / 40.0%	18.1 / 32.1
7	@CIN	27 – 17 W	2.4	38.2% / 37.8%	5.9% / 4.4%	0.0% / 7.0%	7.2 / 5.7	52.3% / 30.0%	25.0% / 50.0%	4.9 / 1.7	78 / 65	53.4% / 34.0%	46.2% / 35.4%	66.7% / 53.6%	5.9 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.5%	56.4% / 30.8%	28.6 / 29.1
8	NYJ	29 – 15 W	8.5	50.0% / 44.7%	5.6% / 21.1%	0.0% / 10.0%	7.7 / 4.4	17.6% / 46.7%	44.1% / 26.7%	3.3 / 3.1	70 / 53	32.0% / 51.2%	34.3% / 45.3%	55.3% / 39.0%	5.6 / 4.0	1.4% / 0.0%	48.6% / 28.3%	36.9 / 26.5
9	HOU	3 – 26 L	-8.4	39.2% / 62.1%	7.8% / 3.4%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.7	60.0% / 50.0%	6.7% / 20.6%	4.9 / 6.4	66 / 63	47.2% / 58.8%	43.9% / 55.6%	35.4% / 42.0%	5.4 / 6.5	3.0% / 1.6%	22.7% / 54.0%	24.0 / 35.0
11	@IND	13 – 33 L	-7.1	42.9% / 40.7%	4.1% / 11.1%	2.1% / 4.2%	5.7 / 4.6	33.3% / 58.3%	33.3% / 8.3%	3.2 / 7.3	58 / 63	41.9% / 56.3%	41.4% / 50.8%	28.6% / 52.7%	5.3 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	15.5% / 57.1%	30.3 / 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	43 – 13 W	7.1	35.7% / 39.5%	14.3% / 11.6%	0.0% / 7.9%	7.7 / 5.7	50.0% / 45.0%	21.4% / 5.0%	4.4 / 5.1	56 / 63	50.0% / 49.0%	42.9% / 41.3%	67.8% / 47.4%	6.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 31.7%	34.4 / 22.6
2	IND	17 – 19 L	-1.3	37.5% / 45.2%	12.5% / 9.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	3.7 / 3.9	50.0% / 47.1%	20.8% / 29.4%	5.1 / 4.9	56 / 65	52.3% / 45.8%	42.9% / 46.2%	38.4% / 27.8%	4.3 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	42.9% / 52.3%	31.5 / 26.5
3	@JAC	7 – 20 L	-13.0	30.6% / 43.3%	18.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.1 / 6.8	53.8% / 15.0%	19.2% / 45.0%	3.5 / 4.4	75 / 50	36.8% / 37.8%	38.7% / 32.0%	57.1% / 56.8%	4.5 / 5.8	1.3% / 0.0%	34.7% / 40.0%	28.9 / 25.7
4	@ATL	24 – 10 W	10.8	44.4% / 48.3%	0.0% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.4 / 6.3	44.1% / 41.2%	32.4% / 23.5%	4.1 / 3.4	61 / 75	44.7% / 50.9%	44.3% / 46.7%	50.1% / 39.1%	6.0 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.3%	55.7% / 22.7%	32.6 / 15.7
5	BUF	7 – 14 L	-2.4	40.7% / 47.2%	18.5% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	5.6 / 5.7	40.7% / 55.6%	25.9% / 14.8%	3.8 / 4.0	54 / 63	45.0% / 58.7%	40.7% / 50.8%	52.0% / 34.5%	4.7 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 42.9%	23.3 / 30.0
6	@DEN	0 – 16 L	-7.4	29.3% / 41.4%	17.1% / 3.4%	8.8% / 3.6%	4.0 / 5.8	33.3% / 30.0%	33.3% / 16.7%	1.9 / 3.4	62 / 59	37.8% / 44.2%	30.6% / 35.6%	12.3% / 26.3%	3.3 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	33.9% / 50.8%	30.6 / 23.4
7	LAC	23 – 20 W	0.9	62.5% / 56.4%	6.3% / 2.6%	3.3% / 0.0%	9.6 / 8.4	48.3% / 23.8%	20.7% / 42.9%	3.3 / 1.9	61 / 60	57.4% / 43.8%	55.7% / 45.0%	36.5% / 35.1%	6.6 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.7%	47.5% / 35.0%	24.1 / 24.9
8	TB	27 – 23 W	2.0	47.2% / 45.7%	8.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 4.7%	4.8 / 6.2	23.8% / 33.3%	57.1% / 16.7%	3.4 / 3.5	57 / 76	41.5% / 39.7%	38.6% / 40.8%	55.3% / 35.5%	4.3 / 5.1	1.8% / 2.6%	36.8% / 39.5%	35.4 / 27.5
9	@CAR	20 – 30 L	-9.2	48.8% / 45.7%	9.3% / 8.6%	5.1% / 3.1%	7.2 / 6.1	47.6% / 45.5%	23.8% / 15.2%	5.8 / 4.7	64 / 68	50.9% / 48.0%	48.4% / 45.6%	44.5% / 50.3%	6.7 / 5.4	1.6% / 0.0%	32.8% / 48.5%	21.6 / 39.1
10	KC	35 – 32 W	-3.6	39.1% / 52.8%	17.4% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.2	69.2% / 52.0%	3.8% / 20.0%	8.7 / 3.9	49 / 78	64.1% / 53.2%	55.1% / 52.6%	71.4% / 41.5%	7.6 / 6.8	2.0% / 1.3%	53.1% / 32.1%	24.0 / 30.3

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Nov 24

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis