Jacksonville Jaguars @

Tennessee Titans

Thu, Dec 6
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Tennessee Titans -5, Total: 37.5

Game Analysis

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TENNESSEE (-5) vs Jacksonville

New Jaguars’ quarterback Cody Kessler threw for only 4.9 yards per pass play with Jacksonville’s offense managing just 6 points in his first start of the season, but the Jaguars got the win, which will keep the young quarterback under center for the foreseeable future. Blake Bortles certainly wasn’t playing well this season ranking only above rookies Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in quarterback efficiency, but our metrics still expect Kessler to be at least a point worse than Bortles moving forward. All 3 sacks conceded by Jacksonville’s offensive line were through the middle, which is significant as both starting center Brandon Linder, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency, and All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell are out for the season. Titans’ DT Jurrell Casey has 31 pressures this year, ranking 16th among interior defensive linemen, and I expect the 3-time Pro-Bowler to wreak havoc on the inside on Thursday night. The Jaguars had a 50% rush rate in Kessler’s first start and we may see an increase with Leonard Fournette coming back from suspension, which is actually a bad thing for Jacksonville, given how bad Fournette really is (3.5 ypr this season and just 3.8 ypr for his career).

Marcus Mariota dealt with an injury early in the season where he couldn’t feel his fingers and the Titans even had to resort to Blaine Gabbert for 130 snaps. Tennessee’s offense is likely underrated with Mariota healthy, as they’ve been a full yard per play better since their bye. It looks like Mariota will be able to start despite re-injuring his hand last week, but it will certainly be tough sledding with his top wide receiver facing a difficult matchup. Corey Davis has come on in the last month with 3 touchdowns and averaging 11.7 yards per target, but the 5th-overall pick from a year ago will likely be neutralized by Jalen Ramsey. Our model favors thinks the line is too high, as 3.5 is the fair number, but the better team has the advantage on a short week of preparation and Thursday favorites are 121-81-6 ATS the last 20 years (as long as the underdog is not off a bye week), including 29-13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Titans


  • Pass Plays 36.7 32.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.7% 46.5%
  • Sack Rate 8.7% 5.8%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.3% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.5% 37.3%
  • NYPP 5.9 6.6


  • Rush Plays 26.6 28.0
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 20.4% 23.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.5% 37.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.3% 42.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.0


  • All Snaps 63.3 60.6
  • Early Down Succ 48.1% 45.3%
  • Succ Rate 47.9% 42.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.0% 41.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 29.2
  • Run Ratio 41.8% 46.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.5 29.4
  • Game Control -3.0 3.0
  • Points 16.3 21.0
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