Game Analysis
TENNESSEE (-3) vs Jacksonville
This game has all the week 17 intrigue you could ask for making it difficult to handicap. The Titans will clinch a playoff berth with a win or with losses from both the Bills and Chargers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are locked into the 3-seed but Doug Marrone has indicated he will still play his starters until the game is decided. To add even more complexity, these two teams will likely play in the first round of the playoffs next week if the Titans win.
The Jaguars were favored by 3.5 in the advanced line and my model certainly shows value on them if you believe Marrone will try to win. However, Marrone’s decision doesn’t make sense – especially considering Jacksonville’s playbook should be limited considering they could play Tennessee next week. This week the Jaguars have the same incentive to win as a week 4 preseason game and next week they will play their first playoff game in a decade.
Our ratings make this game a pick if Jacksonville really is playing to win, but it’s hard to imagine the Jags playing their best here with a dumbed down playbook and no incentive – other than to get the taste of last week’s beat down in San Francisco out of their mouths. I suppose I’d rather have Jacksonville if I was in a pool, but I do not have an official lean in this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.3
35.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.9%
38.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
9.4%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
4.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.0%
21.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.3%
45.1%
-
NYPP
6.8
5.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.5
26.7
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.9%
23.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.4%
47.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.4%
36.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
68.8
62.4
-
Early Down Succ
46.1%
46.1%
-
Succ Rate
43.5%
42.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.9%
43.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
27.4
-
Run Ratio
50.6%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
27.5
-
Game Control
5.5
-5.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.7
40.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
47.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
4.1%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.8%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.1%
29.2%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.7
25.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.6%
40.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.7%
29.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
61.5
66.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
48.2%
-
Succ Rate
43.9%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.6%
29.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
27.8
-
Run Ratio
45.1%
38.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.8
29.0
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% / 34.8% |
0.0% / 21.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
6.0 / 2.4 |
41.5% / 60.9% |
17.1% / 17.4% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
62 / 69 |
53.3% / 44.6% |
45.2% / 43.5% |
32.6% / 12.8% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
66.1% / 33.3% |
38.2 / 26.5 |
2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% / 42.9% |
5.6% / 3.6% |
5.9% / 3.7% |
5.9 / 7.5 |
64.0% / 68.4% |
12.0% / 10.5% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
61 / 66 |
52.1% / 64.0% |
50.8% / 57.6% |
23.5% / 41.6% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 57.6% |
23.4 / 39.9 |
3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% / 24.1% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
7.4 / 1.8 |
31.6% / 56.0% |
10.5% / 20.0% |
4.4 / 5.4 |
71 / 54 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
42.3% / 38.9% |
35.8% / 39.2% |
5.8 / 3.4 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
53.5% / 46.3% |
38.5 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% / 44.4% |
2.8% / 13.9% |
2.9% / 3.2% |
3.8 / 6.0 |
57.5% / 31.3% |
20.0% / 43.8% |
4.4 / 8.0 |
76 / 68 |
50.8% / 37.3% |
44.7% / 38.2% |
27.6% / 68.6% |
4.1 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
52.6% / 47.1% |
27.0 / 29.5 |
5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% / 42.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
7.1% / 9.3% |
5.1 / 5.4 |
40.5% / 40.0% |
24.3% / 35.0% |
6.2 / 3.5 |
53 / 76 |
36.6% / 41.0% |
39.6% / 42.1% |
60.1% / 44.5% |
5.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
69.8% / 26.3% |
26.4 / 21.8 |
6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
42.3% / 64.7% |
30.8% / 20.6% |
6.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 58 |
42.0% / 65.9% |
39.4% / 53.4% |
54.2% / 35.5% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
39.4% / 58.6% |
25.3 / 30.5 |
7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% / 34.0% |
3.6% / 21.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.8 / 2.9 |
44.7% / 60.0% |
21.1% / 20.0% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
66 / 67 |
49.0% / 46.9% |
48.5% / 41.8% |
61.8% / 41.4% |
7.9 / 3.5 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 29.9% |
20.1 / 28.0 |
9 |
CIN |
23 – 7 W |
7.2 |
55.3% / 30.0% |
0.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
41.5% / 15.8% |
12.2% / 21.1% |
3.7 / 1.6 |
79 / 39 |
44.1% / 29.6% |
48.1% / 23.1% |
32.8% / 52.7% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
51.9% / 48.7% |
21.1 / 20.2 |
10 |
LAC |
20 – 17 W |
-0.3 |
37.0% / 43.2% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
3.9% / 2.7% |
4.9 / 6.4 |
29.6% / 48.4% |
29.6% / 25.8% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
81 / 68 |
36.1% / 54.9% |
34.6% / 45.6% |
34.7% / 38.4% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
33.3% / 45.6% |
30.7 / 21.1 |
11 |
@CLE |
19 – 7 W |
3.9 |
31.3% / 32.4% |
6.3% / 13.5% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
4.5 / 3.6 |
31.1% / 36.8% |
35.6% / 26.3% |
3.1 / 2.7 |
77 / 56 |
32.1% / 40.0% |
31.2% / 33.9% |
24.2% / 42.2% |
3.7 / 3.3 |
1.3% / 5.4% |
58.4% / 33.9% |
33.0 / 30.4 |
12 |
@ARI |
24 – 27 L |
-5.2 |
40.0% / 43.6% |
8.6% / 2.6% |
3.1% / 2.6% |
3.7 / 6.1 |
36.4% / 40.6% |
31.8% / 21.9% |
4.1 / 3.4 |
57 / 71 |
45.5% / 44.2% |
38.6% / 42.3% |
31.5% / 33.9% |
3.8 / 4.9 |
3.5% / 1.4% |
38.6% / 45.1% |
25.5 / 30.9 |
13 |
IND |
30 – 10 W |
11.5 |
56.8% / 44.7% |
2.7% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
8.9 / 3.9 |
40.7% / 50.0% |
33.3% / 15.4% |
3.6 / 5.4 |
64 / 64 |
45.8% / 46.7% |
50.0% / 46.9% |
39.9% / 39.3% |
6.7 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.2% / 40.6% |
30.9 / 21.3 |
14 |
SEA |
30 – 24 W |
6.2 |
51.9% / 36.4% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
0.0% / 9.7% |
9.9 / 7.9 |
34.9% / 45.8% |
16.3% / 45.8% |
3.7 / 5.9 |
70 / 57 |
51.0% / 44.7% |
41.4% / 40.4% |
47.4% / 77.8% |
6.1 / 7.0 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
61.4% / 42.1% |
30.6 / 30.0 |
15 |
HOU |
45 – 7 W |
22.7 |
53.3% / 22.9% |
3.3% / 11.4% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
10.9 / 2.8 |
42.5% / 47.6% |
20.0% / 9.5% |
3.5 / 4.1 |
70 / 56 |
53.6% / 35.0% |
47.1% / 32.1% |
49.6% / 40.9% |
6.7 / 3.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
57.1% / 37.5% |
33.1 / 19.9 |
16 |
@SF |
33 – 44 L |
-7.9 |
54.9% / 64.5% |
2.0% / 3.2% |
6.0% / 3.3% |
7.5 / 7.7 |
42.9% / 47.2% |
28.6% / 22.2% |
3.3 / 3.7 |
79 / 67 |
51.6% / 54.0% |
50.6% / 55.2% |
28.0% / 38.4% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.4% / 53.7% |
25.5 / 38.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
OAK |
16 – 26 L |
-4.4 |
50.0% / 55.9% |
2.4% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
42.9% / 50.0% |
28.6% / 16.7% |
4.5 / 3.7 |
63 / 64 |
46.9% / 57.1% |
47.6% / 53.1% |
33.1% / 26.7% |
5.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 46.9% |
22.4 / 29.3 |
2 |
@JAC |
37 – 16 W |
7.9 |
42.9% / 41.7% |
3.6% / 5.6% |
3.7% / 5.9% |
7.5 / 5.9 |
68.4% / 64.0% |
10.5% / 12.0% |
4.8 / 4.0 |
66 / 61 |
64.0% / 52.1% |
57.6% / 50.8% |
41.6% / 23.5% |
5.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
57.6% / 41.0% |
39.9 / 23.4 |
3 |
SEA |
33 – 27 W |
4.9 |
51.6% / 50.0% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
44.4% / 40.9% |
22.2% / 31.8% |
5.4 / 3.1 |
67 / 72 |
54.9% / 51.8% |
47.8% / 47.2% |
44.9% / 38.8% |
6.3 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
53.7% / 30.6% |
29.6 / 23.3 |
4 |
@HOU |
14 – 57 L |
-20.6 |
40.9% / 58.3% |
9.1% / 5.6% |
20.0% / 2.9% |
5.0 / 7.6 |
35.0% / 50.0% |
15.0% / 14.3% |
4.4 / 4.1 |
42 / 78 |
43.8% / 53.8% |
38.1% / 53.8% |
52.6% / 28.5% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
2.4% / 0.0% |
47.6% / 53.8% |
21.9 / 38.0 |
5 |
@MIA |
10 – 16 L |
-4.2 |
36.8% / 25.0% |
15.8% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
3.1 / 2.8 |
30.0% / 43.8% |
45.0% / 28.1% |
3.5 / 3.2 |
58 / 60 |
40.0% / 37.2% |
34.5% / 35.0% |
19.1% / 6.1% |
3.2 / 3.0 |
3.4% / 1.7% |
34.5% / 53.3% |
25.1 / 27.0 |
6 |
IND |
36 – 22 W |
-1.2 |
57.6% / 51.4% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
9.2 / 5.7 |
42.9% / 40.0% |
20.0% / 20.0% |
4.8 / 4.3 |
68 / 57 |
51.9% / 53.2% |
50.0% / 47.4% |
42.2% / 22.6% |
7.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
51.5% / 35.1% |
27.4 / 26.5 |
7 |
@CLE |
12 – 9 W |
2.1 |
41.7% / 39.0% |
5.6% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 7.7% |
5.3 / 5.3 |
31.3% / 25.9% |
46.9% / 22.2% |
2.5 / 2.5 |
68 / 68 |
38.0% / 37.3% |
36.8% / 33.8% |
14.5% / 23.9% |
4.0 / 4.2 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.1% / 39.7% |
33.6 / 25.1 |
9 |
BAL |
23 – 20 W |
6.3 |
51.6% / 49.1% |
9.7% / 3.6% |
3.6% / 3.8% |
6.0 / 4.9 |
36.4% / 40.9% |
22.7% / 22.7% |
3.3 / 3.3 |
53 / 77 |
53.8% / 47.4% |
45.3% / 46.8% |
49.0% / 8.2% |
4.9 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.5% / 28.6% |
34.6 / 24.8 |
10 |
CIN |
24 – 20 W |
2.6 |
43.8% / 38.9% |
8.3% / 2.8% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 7.1 |
52.8% / 50.0% |
16.7% / 28.6% |
5.0 / 3.8 |
84 / 50 |
46.4% / 48.7% |
47.6% / 42.0% |
34.6% / 51.0% |
5.0 / 6.2 |
1.2% / 4.0% |
42.9% / 28.0% |
26.1 / 30.9 |
11 |
@PIT |
17 – 40 L |
-9.1 |
41.0% / 55.3% |
12.8% / 6.4% |
11.8% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
32.0% / 33.3% |
32.0% / 16.7% |
2.2 / 2.8 |
64 / 71 |
42.9% / 55.6% |
37.5% / 47.9% |
53.3% / 26.7% |
5.0 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.1% / 33.8% |
22.2 / 44.3 |
12 |
@IND |
20 – 16 W |
-0.5 |
48.0% / 37.8% |
0.0% / 21.6% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 4.5 |
40.0% / 37.5% |
26.7% / 20.8% |
3.1 / 3.7 |
55 / 61 |
48.8% / 36.2% |
43.6% / 37.7% |
35.6% / 28.3% |
5.1 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
54.5% / 39.3% |
31.1 / 29.8 |
13 |
HOU |
24 – 13 W |
-0.2 |
36.0% / 51.9% |
8.0% / 7.7% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
5.8 / 6.4 |
44.0% / 26.1% |
24.0% / 39.1% |
7.9 / 2.3 |
50 / 75 |
36.8% / 42.9% |
40.0% / 44.0% |
55.5% / 40.5% |
6.9 / 5.1 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 30.7% |
24.3 / 27.5 |
14 |
@ARI |
7 – 12 L |
1.6 |
35.3% / 44.1% |
8.8% / 23.5% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 3.7 |
50.0% / 38.7% |
36.4% / 22.6% |
3.0 / 4.5 |
56 / 65 |
45.2% / 51.1% |
41.1% / 41.5% |
25.0% / 47.9% |
3.6 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 47.7% |
24.5 / 35.6 |
15 |
@SF |
23 – 25 L |
-3.0 |
52.9% / 57.8% |
2.9% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 8.1 |
50.0% / 27.3% |
21.4% / 36.4% |
3.2 / 2.3 |
62 / 67 |
51.0% / 47.2% |
51.6% / 47.8% |
26.8% / 31.2% |
5.3 / 6.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
45.2% / 32.8% |
23.4 / 23.7 |
16 |
LA |
23 – 27 L |
-2.4 |
40.0% / 50.0% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 7.2 |
38.5% / 44.4% |
26.9% / 14.8% |
3.7 / 4.3 |
66 / 67 |
43.4% / 51.0% |
39.4% / 47.8% |
36.6% / 41.7% |
5.5 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
39.4% / 40.3% |
30.6 / 26.5 |