Jacksonville Jaguars @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Dec 31
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 311
Odds: Tennessee Titans -3, Total: 42

Game Analysis

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TENNESSEE (-3) vs Jacksonville

This game has all the week 17 intrigue you could ask for making it difficult to handicap. The Titans will clinch a playoff berth with a win or with losses from both the Bills and Chargers. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are locked into the 3-seed but Doug Marrone has indicated he will still play his starters until the game is decided. To add even more complexity, these two teams will likely play in the first round of the playoffs next week if the Titans win.

The Jaguars were favored by 3.5 in the advanced line and my model certainly shows value on them if you believe Marrone will try to win. However, Marrone’s decision doesn’t make sense – especially considering Jacksonville’s playbook should be limited considering they could play Tennessee next week. This week the Jaguars have the same incentive to win as a week 4 preseason game and next week they will play their first playoff game in a decade.

Our ratings make this game a pick if Jacksonville really is playing to win, but it’s hard to imagine the Jags playing their best here with a dumbed down playbook and no incentive – other than to get the taste of last week’s beat down in San Francisco out of their mouths. I suppose I’d rather have Jacksonville if I was in a pool, but I do not have an official lean in this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Titans
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.3 35.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 45.9% 38.6%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 9.4%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 4.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 21.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.3% 45.1%
  • NYPP 6.8 5.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 34.5 26.7
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 22.9% 23.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.4% 47.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.4% 36.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 68.8 62.4
  • Early Down Succ 46.1% 46.1%
  • Succ Rate 43.5% 42.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.9% 43.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 27.4
  • Run Ratio 50.6% 43.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.6 27.5
  • Game Control 5.5 -5.5
 
  • Points 27.2 16.9
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