Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (42) – Jacksonville (-2.5) vs PITTSBURGH

· Pittsburgh is 4-2 despite being outscored by 24 points and ranking 27th in net yards per play at -0.9 yppl.

· Steelers WR Diontae Johnson had 5 receptions for 79 yards against the Rams in his first game since week 2 but he will be limited by CB Darious Williams, who has a league-high 8 forced incompletions.

· Jacksonville’s secondary will get back starting cornerback Tyson Campbell. Backup CB Montaric Brown is surrendering 8.1 yards per target compared to Campbell’s 6.0 yards per target allowed and he will contain WR George Pickens.

· Jaguars’ safety Andre Cisco has 3 interceptions (2nd) and he will patrol the deep area of the field that will force Kenny Pickett into checkdowns.

· Pittsburgh RB Jaylen Warren is gaining 1.96 yards per route run (2nd) but he will be shut down by a Jacksonville defense that is conceding only a 36% pass success rate to running backs (6th).

· Steelers LT Dan Moore has surrendered 21 pressures (10th-most) in just 145 pass-blocking snaps, and he will struggle across from edge defender Josh Allen, who had a career-high 11 pressures last Thursday night.

· Pittsburgh CB Levi Wallace is allowing 1.82 yards per cover snap (2nd-worst) but it seems like they are phasing him out for rookie CB Joey Porter, who has conceded just 1 reception from 10 targets into his coverage this season.

· Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley is averaging a career-low 2.4 yards of separation, and he will line up versus Wallace or Porter depending on if the Steelers make Chandon Sullivan the starting nickelback with Patrick Peterson on the other side.

· TJ Watt has 8.0 sacks (2nd) and he will wreak havoc against Jacksonville rookie right tackle Anton Harrison.

· The Jaguars are targeting tight ends on 25.6% of passes (5th-most) but they will be limited as the Steelers are conceding only a 42% success rate to tight ends (5th).

· Our model makes Jacksonville a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.1. I’m using Pittsburgh in my pool based on an 85-23-1 AST home underdog momentum situation but the Under is the play.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 41.5 points or more.