Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – PITTSBURGH (-7) over Jacksonville

Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions in the Steelers’ early season 30-9 loss to the Jaguars with offensive coordinator Todd Haley calling 74% pass plays against one of the best pass defenses in the last 5 years. I lost a lot of respect for Haley that day. What kind of idiot throws the ball that much against what was at that time an historically great pass defense, when you have a Pro-Bowl caliber running back matched up against a relatively weak run defense? Haley would be wise to learn from his mistakes and feature Le’Veon Bell heavily on Sunday against a Jacksonville’s rush defense ranks 29th this season and still just 24th since acquiring Marcell Dareus. The Steelers will likely go after the weakness, especially considering Paul Posluszny is listed as questionable and didn’t practice on Wednesday. Posluszny ranks 3rd among linebackers with a 28:1 tackled to missed tackle ratio and likely won’t be 100% even if he does suit up.

Haley would also be wise to closely study the Jags-49ers tape, as Jaguars’ linebacker Telvin Smith stupidly admitted after the Niners’ 44-33 win that the “scheme beat us”. Smith went on to say, “San Fran definitely attacked our system defensively. They definitely did some problematic things.” Why would he say that? Is Smith an even bigger idiot than Todd Haley? Why would a player from a team heading to the playoffs publicly state that an opponent beat them with the perfect scheme to exploit their weaknesses? Now the question is if Haley is smart enough to take advantage of the blueprint that 49ers’ genius Kyle Shanahan laid out for him. I guess we’ll see. If not then New England will certainly will.

Jacksonville does match up well against the Steelers’ defense, who are now vulnerable to the run with Ryan Shazier out. Pittsburgh allowed 5.3 yards per rush without Shazier thus far compared to 4.1 yards per rush with Shazier and while they should be better than they’ve shown in that small sample size, the run defense is certainly the weakness of the Steelers’ defense now and the Jaguars like to run the ball (they lead the league in rush rate). However, rookie running back Leonard Fournette seems to have hit the rookie wall, as he’s averaged just 3.1 ypc the last 5 games with no run longer than 24 yards. Pittsburgh can also put an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage now that CB Joe Haden is back from injury, so the Jaguars are still likely going to have to throw the ball successfully to win this game.

Blake Bortles only dropped back to pass 16 times in the first meeting between these two teams because he didn’t need to throw more than that with the defense doing such a good job of defending the worst possible game-plan imaginable. Bortles looked shaky in his first postseason game gaining just 3.0 yards per pass play but he was an effective scrambler leading the team in rushing. Bortles averaged just 20 rushing yards per game this season but I don’t expect the kind of success he had last week on the ground to continue moving forward. Bortles will likely struggle to throw the ball, as the Steelers allowed just 5.1 yards per pass play with Haden, compared to the 7.1 yppp they allowed in 5 games without Haden in the lineup this season.

The Steelers allowed just 30 combined points the last two weeks of the season with Haden in the lineup without Shazier and having a trustworthy cornerback on the outside allows Pittsburgh to load the box, compensating for Shazier’s absence. I don’t think running the ball – even if the Jags have some success doing so – is enough to win this game. Jacksonville only scored 10 points last week against a Bills team that is terrible defending the run, and that was with Bortles having a career day running the ball.

There is some history going against Jacksonville in this game, as surprise stories typically do not fare well in the playoffs. Teams with a preseason market implied win total below 7 are just 7-22 ATS in the postseason after the Rams’ loss and the Bills-Jaguars game last week. Furthermore, new playoff teams are just 34-51-3 ATS against teams that made it the year prior since 2001. My ratings have Pitt by 7.5 points in this game with the negative adjustment for Shazier being out (but with a positive adjustment for Haden being in the lineup) and, in addition to the trends just mentioned, Jacksonville applies to a 7-28-1 ATS playoff road team situation that is 2-22-1 ATS since 1993. I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at -7 points or less (at -120 odds or better) and I have no opinion on the total.

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Steelers

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.8 35.4
Succ Pass Plays 44.4% 37.3%
Sack Rate 4.7% 9.3%
Int Rate 2.2% 3.8%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 20.7%
Big Pass Yards 31.9% 43.2%
NYPP 6.4 4.9

Rush

Rush Plays 33.9 27.8
RB YPR 3.8 4.0
Stuff Rate 22.5% 23.6%
Succ Rush Plays 42.4% 46.8%
Big Rush Yards 42.0% 36.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.2

Game

All Snaps 67.7 63.2
Early Down Succ 46.0% 44.9%
Succ Rate 43.2% 41.4%
Big Yards Rate 38.0% 42.1%
Yards Per Play 5.3 4.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.5 27.6
Run Ratio 50.5% 44.2%
Starting Field Pos 28.1 27.8
Game Control 4.6 -4.6

Points 25.2 15.9

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.1 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 40.5%
Sack Rate 3.8% 10.8%
Int Rate 2.5% 3.6%
Deep Pass Rate 23.0% 21.4%
Big Pass Yards 42.5% 47.6%
NYPP 7.4 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 29.1 24.6
RB YPR 3.6 4.0
Stuff Rate 19.9% 25.5%
Succ Rush Plays 42.6% 46.0%
Big Rush Yards 36.8% 42.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.2

Game

All Snaps 67.3 59.1
Early Down Succ 49.3% 45.6%
Succ Rate 46.3% 43.0%
Big Yards Rate 41.4% 49.9%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 28.7
Run Ratio 43.7% 41.9%
Starting Field Pos 28.7 25.9
Game Control 3.2 -3.2

Points 25.4 19.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@HOU	30 – 7 W	11.9	52.4% / 34.8%	0.0% / 21.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.0 / 2.4	41.5% / 60.9%	17.1% / 17.4%	3.8 / 4.0	62 / 69	53.3% / 44.6%	45.2% / 43.5%	32.6% / 12.8%	4.5 / 2.9	0.0% / 4.3%	66.1% / 33.3%	38.2 / 26.5
2	TEN	16 – 37 L	-7.9	41.7% / 42.9%	5.6% / 3.6%	5.9% / 3.7%	5.9 / 7.5	64.0% / 68.4%	12.0% / 10.5%	4.0 / 4.8	61 / 66	52.1% / 64.0%	50.8% / 57.6%	23.5% / 41.6%	5.1 / 5.9	1.6% / 0.0%	41.0% / 57.6%	23.4 / 39.9
3	BAL	44 – 7 W	23.9	54.5% / 24.1%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 7.4%	7.4 / 1.8	31.6% / 56.0%	10.5% / 20.0%	4.4 / 5.4	71 / 54	48.1% / 42.9%	42.3% / 38.9%	35.8% / 39.2%	5.8 / 3.4	0.0% / 1.9%	53.5% / 46.3%	38.5 / 24.1
4	@NYJ	20 – 23 L	-2.3	30.6% / 44.4%	2.8% / 13.9%	2.9% / 3.2%	3.8 / 6.0	57.5% / 31.3%	20.0% / 43.8%	4.4 / 8.0	76 / 68	50.8% / 37.3%	44.7% / 38.2%	27.6% / 68.6%	4.1 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.5%	52.6% / 47.1%	27.0 / 29.5
5	@PIT	30 – 9 W	4.5	37.5% / 42.9%	12.5% / 3.6%	7.1% / 9.3%	5.1 / 5.4	40.5% / 40.0%	24.3% / 35.0%	6.2 / 3.5	53 / 76	36.6% / 41.0%	39.6% / 42.1%	60.1% / 44.5%	5.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	69.8% / 26.3%	26.4 / 21.8
6	LA	17 – 27 L	-5.1	37.5% / 37.5%	12.5% / 12.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.5 / 4.5	42.3% / 64.7%	30.8% / 20.6%	6.5 / 4.2	66 / 58	42.0% / 65.9%	39.4% / 53.4%	54.2% / 35.5%	5.9 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.7%	39.4% / 58.6%	25.3 / 30.5
7	@IND	27 – 0 W	18.7	53.6% / 34.0%	3.6% / 21.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.8 / 2.9	44.7% / 60.0%	21.1% / 20.0%	5.0 / 4.8	66 / 67	49.0% / 46.9%	48.5% / 41.8%	61.8% / 41.4%	7.9 / 3.5	3.0% / 0.0%	57.6% / 29.9%	20.1 / 28.0
9	CIN	23 – 7 W	7.2	55.3% / 30.0%	0.0% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 6.0	41.5% / 15.8%	12.2% / 21.1%	3.7 / 1.6	79 / 39	44.1% / 29.6%	48.1% / 23.1%	32.8% / 52.7%	5.2 / 3.8	1.3% / 0.0%	51.9% / 48.7%	21.1 / 20.2
10	LAC	20 – 17 W	-0.3	37.0% / 43.2%	5.6% / 0.0%	3.9% / 2.7%	4.9 / 6.4	29.6% / 48.4%	29.6% / 25.8%	5.0 / 2.8	81 / 68	36.1% / 54.9%	34.6% / 45.6%	34.7% / 38.4%	4.9 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.5%	33.3% / 45.6%	30.7 / 21.1
11	@CLE	19 – 7 W	3.9	31.3% / 32.4%	6.3% / 13.5%	0.0% / 6.3%	4.5 / 3.6	31.1% / 36.8%	35.6% / 26.3%	3.1 / 2.7	77 / 56	32.1% / 40.0%	31.2% / 33.9%	24.2% / 42.2%	3.7 / 3.3	1.3% / 5.4%	58.4% / 33.9%	33.0 / 30.4
12	@ARI	24 – 27 L	-5.2	40.0% / 43.6%	8.6% / 2.6%	3.1% / 2.6%	3.7 / 6.1	36.4% / 40.6%	31.8% / 21.9%	4.1 / 3.4	57 / 71	45.5% / 44.2%	38.6% / 42.3%	31.5% / 33.9%	3.8 / 4.9	3.5% / 1.4%	38.6% / 45.1%	25.5 / 30.9
13	IND	30 – 10 W	11.5	56.8% / 44.7%	2.7% / 10.5%	0.0% / 5.9%	8.9 / 3.9	40.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 15.4%	3.6 / 5.4	64 / 64	45.8% / 46.7%	50.0% / 46.9%	39.9% / 39.3%	6.7 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	42.2% / 40.6%	30.9 / 21.3
14	SEA	30 – 24 W	6.2	51.9% / 36.4%	0.0% / 6.1%	0.0% / 9.7%	9.9 / 7.9	34.9% / 45.8%	16.3% / 45.8%	3.7 / 5.9	70 / 57	51.0% / 44.7%	41.4% / 40.4%	47.4% / 77.8%	6.1 / 7.0	1.4% / 0.0%	61.4% / 42.1%	30.6 / 30.0
15	HOU	45 – 7 W	22.7	53.3% / 22.9%	3.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	10.9 / 2.8	42.5% / 47.6%	20.0% / 9.5%	3.5 / 4.1	70 / 56	53.6% / 35.0%	47.1% / 32.1%	49.6% / 40.9%	6.7 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	57.1% / 37.5%	33.1 / 19.9
16	@SF	33 – 44 L	-7.9	54.9% / 64.5%	2.0% / 3.2%	6.0% / 3.3%	7.5 / 7.7	42.9% / 47.2%	28.6% / 22.2%	3.3 / 3.7	79 / 67	51.6% / 54.0%	50.6% / 55.2%	28.0% / 38.4%	6.0 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	35.4% / 53.7%	25.5 / 38.4
17	@TEN	10 – 15 L	-5.6	33.3% / 29.2%	5.6% / 12.5%	5.9% / 0.0%	4.1 / 4.8	50.0% / 37.5%	16.7% / 30.0%	3.5 / 2.9	60 / 64	40.9% / 40.0%	40.0% / 34.4%	10.0% / 51.1%	3.8 / 3.6	3.3% / 1.6%	40.0% / 62.5%	21.9 / 38.2
18	BUF	10 – 3 W	1.7	33.3% / 26.2%	8.3% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%	3.1 / 3.2	48.6% / 43.8%	22.9% / 15.6%	4.5 / 4.1	59 / 74	50.0% / 30.9%	42.4% / 33.8%	51.5% / 18.3%	3.9 / 3.6	0.0% / 0.0%	59.3% / 43.2%	26.3 / 21.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	21 – 18 W	5.8	45.9% / 43.2%	2.7% / 18.9%	2.8% / 3.3%	6.9 / 4.9	16.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	1.5 / 2.3	62 / 62	41.0% / 41.7%	33.9% / 40.3%	35.2% / 45.1%	4.7 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	20.8 / 28.6
2	MIN	26 – 9 W	9.3	40.5% / 32.5%	5.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.7	41.2% / 50.0%	20.6% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.6	71 / 60	48.1% / 42.9%	40.8% / 38.3%	34.1% / 45.1%	4.7 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.7%	47.9% / 33.3%	31.8 / 23.9
3	@CHI	17 – 23 L	-4.4	47.6% / 33.3%	7.1% / 8.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.0 / 3.5	64.7% / 44.7%	5.9% / 28.9%	4.1 / 5.8	59 / 62	56.3% / 42.0%	52.5% / 40.3%	29.4% / 55.3%	4.8 / 4.9	3.4% / 1.6%	28.8% / 61.3%	36.4 / 32.7
4	@BAL	26 – 9 W	8.6	41.9% / 52.9%	3.2% / 7.8%	3.3% / 4.3%	6.7 / 4.0	46.5% / 46.7%	23.3% / 46.7%	4.0 / 5.5	74 / 66	45.6% / 56.9%	44.6% / 51.5%	26.4% / 25.3%	5.2 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	58.1% / 22.7%	31.1 / 28.5
5	JAC	9 – 30 L	-4.5	42.9% / 37.5%	3.6% / 12.5%	9.3% / 7.1%	5.4 / 5.1	40.0% / 40.5%	35.0% / 24.3%	3.5 / 6.2	76 / 53	41.0% / 36.6%	42.1% / 39.6%	44.5% / 60.1%	4.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	26.3% / 69.8%	21.8 / 26.4
6	@KC	19 – 13 W	5.8	57.7% / 35.1%	3.8% / 8.1%	4.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 6.0	53.8% / 40.0%	17.9% / 33.3%	5.0 / 1.9	65 / 52	64.0% / 39.5%	55.4% / 36.5%	61.7% / 62.5%	6.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 28.8%	21.3 / 31.7
7	CIN	29 – 14 W	7.2	48.0% / 35.3%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	10.7 / 3.2	37.0% / 22.2%	17.4% / 38.9%	3.4 / 4.0	71 / 52	49.1% / 32.4%	40.8% / 30.8%	56.5% / 35.6%	6.0 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	64.8% / 34.6%	29.4 / 29.1
8	@DET	20 – 15 W	1.9	41.9% / 48.9%	0.0% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	10.2 / 8.7	41.9% / 50.0%	22.6% / 27.3%	2.5 / 3.2	62 / 69	41.9% / 58.2%	41.9% / 49.3%	53.2% / 58.1%	6.4 / 7.0	1.6% / 1.4%	50.0% / 31.9%	24.8 / 22.8
10	@IND	20 – 17 W	-5.1	50.0% / 40.7%	3.1% / 11.1%	3.2% / 4.2%	7.1 / 7.3	36.7% / 36.7%	36.7% / 33.3%	2.9 / 2.4	62 / 57	44.9% / 40.0%	43.5% / 38.6%	38.9% / 45.1%	5.1 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	48.4% / 52.6%	31.7 / 21.6
11	TEN	40 – 17 W	9.1	55.3% / 41.0%	6.4% / 12.8%	0.0% / 11.8%	6.0 / 6.8	33.3% / 32.0%	16.7% / 32.0%	2.8 / 2.2	71 / 64	55.6% / 42.9%	47.9% / 37.5%	26.7% / 53.3%	5.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	33.8% / 39.1%	44.3 / 22.2
12	GB	31 – 28 W	-1.4	65.2% / 40.0%	2.2% / 13.3%	4.4% / 0.0%	7.4 / 7.6	45.8% / 54.2%	8.3% / 20.8%	5.0 / 3.3	70 / 54	57.1% / 45.0%	58.6% / 46.3%	38.1% / 60.3%	6.6 / 5.7	1.4% / 0.0%	34.3% / 44.4%	31.7 / 26.9
13	@CIN	23 – 20 W	-7.5	46.3% / 44.7%	2.4% / 5.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.9 / 5.9	54.5% / 72.7%	18.2% / 9.1%	4.2 / 5.9	63 / 60	52.0% / 56.5%	49.2% / 55.0%	36.9% / 26.1%	5.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 36.7%	21.6 / 21.6
14	BAL	39 – 38 W	1.6	56.7% / 45.7%	4.5% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.3 / 7.5	43.8% / 65.4%	18.8% / 11.5%	3.7 / 5.8	83 / 61	50.8% / 56.9%	54.2% / 54.1%	41.3% / 49.6%	6.6 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	19.3% / 42.6%	21.0 / 26.0
15	NE	24 – 27 L	2.6	50.0% / 48.6%	6.3% / 5.4%	3.3% / 2.9%	8.4 / 7.6	51.6% / 57.1%	16.1% / 9.5%	4.6 / 3.8	63 / 58	46.8% / 59.1%	50.8% / 51.7%	39.0% / 44.2%	6.6 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	49.2% / 36.2%	26.6 / 23.1
16	@HOU	34 – 6 W	16.5	46.7% / 29.2%	0.0% / 29.2%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.5 / 2.1	40.0% / 42.9%	13.3% / 17.9%	3.6 / 6.3	60 / 52	44.2% / 41.0%	43.3% / 36.5%	44.4% / 65.6%	5.6 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.9%	50.0% / 53.8%	32.6 / 23.1
17	CLE	28 – 24 W	6.1	46.7% / 38.9%	10.0% / 16.7%	3.7% / 3.3%	7.5 / 7.6	35.3% / 44.4%	32.4% / 33.3%	3.7 / 3.8	64 / 63	50.0% / 38.3%	40.6% / 41.3%	55.6% / 67.6%	5.5 / 5.9	1.6% / 1.6%	53.1% / 42.9%	31.9 / 25.6

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Jan 14

10:05 AM Pacific

Game Analysis