Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs Jacksonville

· The Jaguars beat the Colts and Chargers – two teams favored to make the playoffs coming into the season – by 52 total points the last two weeks. Albeit Indianapolis and Los Angeles were dealing with a ton of injuries in those games.

· New head coach Doug Pederson’s scheme is making a real difference for his second year QB. Less than 20% of Trevor Lawrence’s passes short of the sticks resulted in a first down last year, but Pederson is putting the wide receivers in position to run after the catch and 31% of Jacksonville’s targets short of the sticks this season have moved the chains.

· Lawrence himself has improved his accuracy with an uncatchable pass rate of 18% compared to 23% in 2021.

· Trevor Lawrence averaged a career-low 2.39 seconds time to throw in the victory over the Chargers and he’ll need to get the ball out quickly again on Sunday.

· Jaguars center Luke Fortner ranks last in pass blocking efficiency. Eagles rookie interior defender Jordan Davis recorded four hurries against the Commanders. Also, Philadelphia DT Fletcher Cox ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency and DT Javon Hargrave ranks 12th.

· Eagles edge defender Brandon Graham had three sacks and two hits on Carson Wentz last week, but Jacksonville RT Jawaan Taylor currently leads the league in pass blocking efficiency.

· Philadelphia nickelback Avonte Maddox is allowing just 0.76 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) and he should contain WR Christian Kirk, who leads the NFL with 181 yards from slot routes.

· Jalen Hurts got WR DeVonta Smith going last Sunday with eight receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown. Smith will be contained by Jacksonville cornerback Tyson Campbell, who registered two defensive stops in coverage and allowed just three catches for 22 yards across six targets in week 3.

· Jaguars edge defender Josh Allen had an incredible 10 pressures in 39 pass-rush snaps last week, but there’s a huge difference from Chargers backup tackle Storm Norton to an Eagles offensive line ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Philadelphia has the league’s best ground game by our numbers, but the Jaguars have the top-rated rush defense.

· Our model has the Eagles by 5.9 with a predicted total of 46.6.