Game Analysis

Lean – Jacksonville (+2.5) over NY JETS

· Trevor Lawrence is averaging 7.2 yppp in four games since coming out of bye week and the Jaguars just gained 7.2 yard per play (the most of any offense in week 15) on a Dallas defense allowing -0.088 EPA/snap (3rd).

· The Jets will be another challenge for Lawrence with Quinnen Williams likely back on the field. Williams leads all interior defenders in pass rushing efficiency and New York’s defense did not have a sack without him last week.

· Jacksonville’s offensive line ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency but left tackle Cam Robinson went down late against the Cowboys. Backup tackle Walker Little surrendered four pressures on just 19 pass-blocking snaps after coming into the game and he will struggle on Sunday against Jets edge rusher Carl Lawson.

· Zay Jones is gaining 0.46 EPA/target (8th) but I expect Lawrence to look towards Christian Kirk in the slot as Jones will be lined up across from CB Sauce Gardner, who was targeted just once all game by Detroit’s offense.

· New York’s defense is allowing just 4.1 yards per carry this season (5th) and the strong rush defense held even without Quinnen Williams last week. The Lions had just a 33% rush success rate.

· Zach Wilson averaged 7.4 yppp last week but his completion percentage versus expectation was -2.4% and some of his out of structure throws could have been intercepted. The wind and rain in this game will increase the likelihood of a Wilson turnover.

· The Jets supporting cast around Wilson will be better on Thursday night with the likely return to the lineup of WR Corey Davis, who is averaging 0.24 EPA/target more than backup Denzel Mims.

· Jaguars edge defender Josh Allen has 51 pressures (13th) but he will be limited by LT Duane Brown, who ranks 19th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model makes Jacksonville a 2.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 38.5 points, but teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday or Monday overtime game are just 3-21 ATS (Jacksonville). I’ll still lean with the Jaguars.