Jacksonville Jaguars @

New York Jets

Sun, Dec 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: New York Jets -2, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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Lean – Jacksonville (+2) over NY JETS

There are many similarities between these teams and it’s hard to justify one being favored over the other. Both start rookie quarterbacks and Trevor Lawrence is averaging 5.2 yppp (30th) while Zach Wilson is averaging 4.8 yppp (31st). Both will be without their top edge rusher; Jaguars Josh Allen has 46 pressures (19th) while Jets John Franklin-Myers has 45 pressures (20th). Both slot receivers, Jacksonville’s Laviska Shenault and New York’s Jamison Crowder, will be out.

Wilson has gotten very conservative lately in an attempt to cut down on his 3.6% interception rate, and he didn’t complete a pass beyond 10 yards last week, which is cutting out pretty much the only strength he’s shown so far in his young career. Wilson is averaging 12.7 yards per attempt on passes that travel 20+ yards in the air (14th). The Jaguars secondary looks like they have an emerging cornerback to play opposite CB Shaquill Griffin, who is being targeted just one in every 7.7 cover snaps (21st). Jacksonville cornerback Tyson Campbell was targeted six times across 29 coverage snaps and allowed a mere nine yards and no first downs in coverage last week.

Our model favors the Jaguars by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 39.0 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Jets
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.14 34.50
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.3% 50.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.2% 5.2%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 1.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.9% 16.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 32.5% 39.9%
  • NYPP 5.23 6.93



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.29 28.79
  • RB YPR 4.51 3.73
  • Stuff Rate 21.5% 23.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.7% 47.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.8% 32.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.61 3.92




Game

  • All Snaps 60.43 63.29
  • Early Down Succ 49.6% 51.9%
  • Succ Rate 45.6% 49.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.2% 37.6%
  • Yards Per Play 5.00 5.56
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.62 31.37
  • Run Ratio 36.9% 45.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -7.51 7.51
 
  • Points 14.00 26.43
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