Game Analysis
NEW YORK JETS (+3.5/+3) vs Jacksonville
Both of these teams are coming off impressive wins in which they outgained their opponents by 2 yards per play. The Jets and Jaguars defenses turned in the top two performances of week 3 and that is reflected in the lowest total of week 4 (39.5 points). Furthermore, both of these defenses have been unlucky to give up touchdowns on more than 70% of their opponents’ Redzone opportunities.
Interestingly, the Jaguars defense ranks first against the pass and last against the run this season. The Jets ground game hasn’t been very impressive this so far this season – my numbers have them ranked 20th – but it could be a nice week for Bilal Powell and company if the Jets stay in the game. New York actually applies to a good week 4 situation, as teams that lost their first two games of the season tend to get a morale boost after winning in week 3. In fact, dogs of more than 1 point are 49-17-3 ATS since 1980 in game 4 after getting their first win the previous week. Unfortunately, my model projects the fair line on this game at Jacksonville by 5 points and I have no opinion.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.0
34.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.5%
33.9%
-
Sack Rate
1.9%
10.7%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
4.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.5%
23.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
22.0%
22.7%
-
NYPP
6.4
3.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.7
28.7
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
13.2%
16.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.7%
61.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.7%
30.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
64.7
63.0
-
Early Down Succ
51.2%
50.5%
-
Succ Rate
46.1%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
30.7%
31.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
4.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
2.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
27.7
-
Run Ratio
53.5%
45.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
33.3
30.2
-
Game Control
9.3
-9.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.3
35.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.8%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.1%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.4%
16.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.5%
43.0%
-
NYPP
6.2
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.7
29.0
-
RB YPR
3.2
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
28.3%
34.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.2%
40.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
29.3%
45.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
57.0
64.3
-
Early Down Succ
46.1%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
43.3%
44.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.5%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.8%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.2
27.7
-
Run Ratio
44.7%
44.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
28.2
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% /
34.8% |
0.0% /
21.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.0 /
2.4 |
41.5% /
60.9% |
17.1% /
17.4% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
62 /
69 |
53.3% /
44.6% |
45.2% /
43.5% |
32.6% /
12.8% |
4.5 /
2.9 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
66.1% /
33.3% |
38.2 /
26.5 |
| 2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% /
42.9% |
5.6% /
3.6% |
5.9% /
3.7% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
64.0% /
68.4% |
12.0% /
10.5% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
61 /
66 |
52.1% /
64.0% |
50.8% /
57.6% |
23.5% /
41.6% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
41.0% /
57.6% |
23.4 /
39.9 |
| 3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% /
24.1% |
0.0% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.4 /
1.8 |
31.6% /
56.0% |
10.5% /
20.0% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
71 /
54 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
42.3% /
38.9% |
35.8% /
39.2% |
5.8 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
53.5% /
46.3% |
38.5 /
24.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% /
43.3% |
2.5% /
6.7% |
5.1% /
3.6% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
25.0% /
33.3% |
31.3% /
24.4% |
2.4 /
4.3 |
56 /
75 |
35.9% /
37.7% |
33.9% /
37.3% |
26.5% /
68.1% |
3.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
60.0% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% /
64.3% |
13.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
61.5% /
40.7% |
19.2% /
33.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
55 /
55 |
53.7% /
48.8% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
43.0% /
56.1% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
49.1% |
27.1 /
35.7 |
| 3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% /
41.7% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
9.3 /
4.1 |
37.1% /
46.7% |
34.3% /
46.7% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
60 /
63 |
48.9% /
54.2% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
40.1% /
11.6% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
58.3% /
23.8% |
31.4 /
23.7 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
@ 
New York Jets