Jacksonville Jaguars @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Dec 6
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -10, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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MINNESOTA (-10) vs Jacksonville

Lean – Over 52.5

Kirk Cousins completed 12 of his 17 passes targeted at least 10 yards downfield last week for 180 yards despite not having Adam Thielen on the field. Cousins is now averaging 7.8 yards per pass play (3rd) and will face the worst pass defense in the NFL according to our metrics. The Jaguars are down to their 6th and 7th cornerbacks due to injuries. Luq Barcoo and Josiah Scott have no chance of staying in front of Justin Jefferson on Sunday. Also, there’s a decent chance Thielen should be able to return for this game. Jacksonville’s pass rush is atrocious without edge defender Josh Allen (knee injury) and last week the Jaguars generated pressure on only 12.5% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks.

The Vikings’ rush defense ranks 2nd so Jacksonville’s offense will rely on Mike Glennon, who may not have DJ Chark (ribs) and Chris Conley (hip) as receiving options. However, Glennon averaged 6.7 yppp last week with Chark and Conley sidelined and he is an upgrade over Jake Luton.

Our model favors the Vikings by 10.2 with a predicted total of 53.6 points and the matchups favor a bit more scoring that the model projects.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Vikings
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.2 35.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.5% 53.3%
  • Sack Rate 7.3% 3.1%
  • Int Rate 2.5% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 19.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.4% 38.8%
  • NYPP 5.7 8.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.0 30.2
  • RB YPR 4.4 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 14.3% 20.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.9% 49.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.1% 48.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 62.2 65.5
  • Early Down Succ 50.8% 54.8%
  • Succ Rate 48.3% 51.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.4% 43.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 6.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 29.6
  • Run Ratio 35.8% 46.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.8 30.1
  • Game Control -6.0 6.0
 
  • Points 20.6 29.5
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