Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Jacksonville (+3.5) over MIAMI

• Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville’s passing offense have a lot of factors that should regress positively heading into 2024 after averaging 0.05 EPA/dropback last year (14th).
• The Jaguars were 2nd in fumbles lost rate, 27th in EPA from yards after the catch, 21st in Red Zone TD scoring percentage, and they led the NFL in EPA lost to dropped passes.
• Lawrence played through a knee bruise, a high ankle sprain, and a concussion. Lawrence also missed one game then played through a sprained A/C joint last season.
• Lawrence had 14 interceptions in 2023. Four came off tipped balls and 6 came from miscommunications with his receivers, a group that should be better in 2024.
• The Jaguars drafted WR Brian Thomas in the first round and brought in Gabe Davis, who finished 20th EPA/target last year with the Bills.
• Jacksonville retained the two best receivers in WR Christian Kirk, who ranked 6th in yards per route run in the slot, and Evan Engram, who was 7th among tight ends in success rate.
• Jacksonville’s offensive line ranked 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency in the 7 weeks that starting left tackle Cam Robinson got more than 15 snaps but Doug Pederson was protecting them with a quick game.
• This season, the Jaguars will take a step forward with RT Anton Harrison going into year 2 and bringing in C Mitch Morse, who was 5th in pass blocking grade by PFF last season.
• Trevor Lawrence should have enough time in the pocket to hit more explosive plays in 2024. Lawrence averaged 9.4 air yards per attempt in the preseason compared to just a 7.1-yard average depth of target in 2023.
• Miami’s defense has 111 pressures out the door with DT Christian Wilkins and LB Andrew Van Ginkel gone. Also, starting edge defenders Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are out to start this season. That leaves DT Zach Sieler as the only player left on this defense to get more than 25 pressures last year.
• Miami’s new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver will benefit from an improved secondary after adding CB Kendall Fuller, who finished 9th in PFF coverage grade in 2023.
• However, depleted trenches on both sides of the ball will hold back this Dolphins team in the first month of the season.
• Miami’s offensive line lost starting C Connor Williams and starting guard Robert Hunt from last season. It gets even shakier with Isaiah Wynn out to start this season. His backup Liam Eichenberg surrendered a 5% pressure rate in 2023 – compared to Wynn’s 2%.
• The Jaguars brought in DT Arik Armstead, who ranked 10th in pass-rushing efficiency with the 49ers last year and Tua Tagovailoa will constantly have his pocket collapsing in this game given the backups and new faces along Miami’s interior offensive line.
• Jacksonville’s new defensive coordinator Ryan Neilsen had the Falcons consistently rated better than average in the market last season despite their best player DT Grady Jarrett being out half the year.
• Neilsen specializes in the defensive line and the Jaguars should be near the top of the NFL in sack rate this season with Armstead joining former #1 pick Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, who ranked 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency last year.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, and the Jaguars apply to a 71-28-3 ATS week 1 angle.

Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 at -120 odds or better.