Game Analysis

Lean – KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Jacksonville

Strong Opinion – Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Total Receptions (-120) to -130

· Kansas City closed as 10-point favorites hosting the Jaguars in week 10 and the game landed right on the number as the Chiefs won 27-17. Kansas City should be double-digit favorites again in this game. Even if you believe Jacksonville has improved some in the last two months, it would be offset by the Chiefs getting a bye week and the extra home field advantage in playoff games.

· Patrick Mahomes averaged 9.5 yppp against the Jaguars without top wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who suffered a concussion in the first half. Smith-Schuster leads all WRs with a 67% success rate on his targets this season.

· The league average yards per target to a tight end is 7.2. Jacksonville’s defense has surrendered 9.5 yards per target to TEs while no other defense in the NFL allowed even 9 yards per target to tight ends. I expect Travis Kelce to post big numbers in this matchup. The Chiefs had a 61% success rate when targeting Kelce this year (2nd) and the All-Pro moved the chains 29 times more than any other tight end.

· Jerick McKinnon tied the NFL record for most receiving touchdowns in a season for a running back with 9. McKinnon provides an outlet to Mahomes when receivers are blanketed downfield, so he doesn’t have to waste a down throwing the ball away. The Jaguars allowed 5.8 yards per target to opposing running backs (20th) and it’s more likely than not that McKinnon will find the endzone once again on Saturday.

· Jacksonville’s defense made a mid-season swap in the secondary, which I talked about in last week’s analysis. The Jaguars moved CB Darious Williams outside and Tre Herndon inside to nickelback. Williams allowed 1.30 yards per slot cover snap and has conceded only 0.29 yards per cover snap on the outside. Meanwhile, Herndon was surrendering 1.46 yards per cover snap on the outside and has limited slot receivers to 1.18 yards per cover snap. Herndon did not concede a reception last week and Williams allowed just 6.3 yards per target.

· The improvement with Jacksonville’s cornerbacks is offset by the loss of edge defender Dawuane Smoot, whose 12.0% pressure rate is much higher than rookie Travon Walker’s 8.6% pressure rate. Smoot has been out since week 16 with a torn right Achilles tendon.

· Kansas City RT Andrew Wylie surrendered the second-most pressures this season with 49 and he will struggle against edge defender Josh Allen, who ranked 14th in pass rushing efficiency. However, the one mismatch will not be the deciding factor up front as the Jaguars only had a 32.5% pressure rate on Patrick Mahomes in week 10, which is slightly below the league average.

· Kansas City DT Chris Jones’ 77 pressures were 14 more than any other interior pass rusher this season. Luke Fortner ranks 25th out of 29 qualifying centers in pass blocking efficiency and Jones had two sacks versus the Jaguars in week 10.

· Jacksonville’s offensive line is without starting LT Cam Robinson, who allowed a 4.8% pressure rate while backup Walker Little has allowed a 6.8% pressure rate.

· The Jaguars had by far the lowest-ranked line in PFF run-blocking grade over the season and RB Travis Etienne will be contained on the ground as the Chiefs are conceding just a 39% rush success rate (10th).

· Kansas City’s defense surrendered 5.9 yards per target to opposing RBs (23rd), which has always been a weakness for coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, so we could see Etienne play a role in the receiving game.

· Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie ranked 13th while fellow rookie CB Jaylen Watson ranked 54th coverage grade by PFF out of 67 qualifiers this season. Jacksonville wide receiver Zay Jones averaged 0.34 EPA/target (21st) and offensive coordinator Press Taylor will likely try to get him lined up across from Watson.

· Kansas City nickelback L’Jarius Sneed is conceding just 1.04 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will contain WR Christian Kirk, who is gaining 1.74 yards per route run in the slot (8th).

· Andy Reid is 36-22-1 ATS in his career as a head coach with an extra week time prepare (22-13 ATS off bye week and 14-9-1 in week 1).

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.7 points, with a predicted total of 51.9 points, but the matchups favor KC and the Jaguars apply to a 28-87-3 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s upset win (that situation is 1-15-1 ATS in the playoffs). Also, the Chiefs apply to a 36-5-1 ATS home playoff situation.

Kansas City is part of a 1-Star 6-point Teaser Best Bet (-2.5) with Philadelphia (-1), as long as both are -2.5 or less.