Jacksonville Jaguars @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 14
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 241
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -10.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Jacksonville (+10.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

The Indianapolis offensive line provided 188 rushing yards before contact last Thursday, which is 92 more yards than any other team in a game this year, but the Colts ground game will have a much tougher test this week versus a Jaguars rush defense ranked 4th.

Jacksonville edge defender Josh Allen had a 13.5% pressure rate against the Bills, and he might be able to keep that pace this week across from LT Eric Fisher, who ranks 43rd out of 49 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency.

Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell is surrendering over 2 yards per cover snap and has no chance of containing Michael Pittman, who is averaging 2.01 yards per route run (16th). Carson Wentz will look for Pittman on deep routes when he has time in the pocket.

Trevor Lawrence suffered a low-ankle sprain last week and missed 6 snaps. Lawrence is adding 0.3 points per game with his legs and the ankle could also affect his throwing accuracy a bit. I’m making a half point adjustment until Lawrence shows full mobility with his ankle.

Jacksonville WR Jamal Agnew is averaging 7.5 targets per game since DJ Chark was ruled out for season with fractured ankle. Kenny Moore is surrendering 1.65 yards per cover snap in the slot which ranks 21st out of 23 qualifying nickelbacks and will struggle to stay with Agnew on the inside.

Our model favors the Colts by just 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, and Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Colts
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.88 36.13
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 50.9%
  • Sack Rate 4.2% 5.2%
  • Int Rate 3.0% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.8% 20.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.3% 44.8%
  • NYPP 5.69 7.53



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.38 27.25
  • RB YPR 4.76 3.47
  • Stuff Rate 19.8% 22.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.3% 49.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.6% 27.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.77 3.79




Game

  • All Snaps 62.25 63.38
  • Early Down Succ 53.6% 53.5%
  • Succ Rate 48.4% 50.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.0% 40.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.35 5.92
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.25 30.96
  • Run Ratio 37.6% 43.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -5.23 5.23
 
  • Points 16.50 26.13
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