Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Jacksonville (-1.5 -105) over HOUSTON

Lean – Over (37.5)

• Houston’s offense has a 40.9% success rate this season (29th), but it’s much worse under the hood.
• The Texans averaged 6.3 yppl against Baltimore and San Francisco’s JV defenses and have combined to average only 4.6 yppl in the other 6 games.
• It was barely a workable supporting cast for CJ Stroud, but the offense will fall off a cliff with Davis Mills at the helm. Mills is a 1.7-point downgrade according to our numbers. Mills averaged only 3.8 yppp last week against the Broncos, missing Defensive Player of the Year CB Pat Surtain.
• Furthermore, Houston will also be without RT Tytus Howard, who ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Texans averaged -0.20 EPA/play against the Jaguars in week 3 (30th), and I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday.
• Jacksonville is also dealing with injuries on offense, possibly missing both wide receivers, Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas. However, the Jaguars did something about it, trading for WR Jakobi Meyers. I’m adjusting a point for the loss of Hunter and Thomas, but it might not be that much.
• Hunter and Thomas are combining for a 45% success rate, while Meyers had a 55% success rate in Las Vegas, and backup WR Parker Washington has a 46% success rate.
• Jacksonville’s offense has a league-high 8.8% drop rate, and Trevor Lawrence finally has a sure-handed weapon in Meyers, who has just 4 drops on 283 targets since 2023.
• Our model favors the Jaguars by 4.6 points, with a predicted total of 41.1 points.

Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at -2 or less.