Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Jacksonville (+6.5 -115) over HOUSTON

• I know the Jaguars got beat down last Monday night but there has been too much of an overreaction to Jacksonville’s 47-10 loss in primetime.
• The Jaguars closed as 5-point underdogs in Buffalo last week.
• The Texans closed -6 at home to the Bears in week 2 and then had a -16.5% net success rate versus the Vikings last Sunday.
• Chicago is not better than Jacksonville and Houston is not better than Buffalo. The Jaguars are -0.9 net yppl (26th), the Bears are -1.2 net yppl (30th), the Texans are +0.5 net yppl (12th), and the Bills lead the NFL at +1.9 net yards per play.
• Jacksonville is a half point better than Chicago according to our numbers and Buffalo is 2.5 points better than Houston.
• Homefield advantage is worth less in divisional games valued at only 1.3 points according to our numbers.
• Our model favors the Texans by just 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points.

Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at +6 or more.