Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **First Half Over (21.5) – CHICAGO (-2) vs Jacksonville

Alternate Bet is the Game Over 45 or less for 2-Stars and 1-Star at 45.5 points.

• Trevor Lawrence averaged 0.48 EPA/play last week and he has a favorable matchup on Sunday morning in London to punish Chicago’s scheme on defense.
• The Bears have an 80% zone coverage rate (8th-highest) and Jacksonville’s yards per attempt versus zone is 21% higher than it is against man coverage (8th).
• Chicago safety Jaquan Brisker did not travel to London due to a concussion, leaving a hole in the deep secondary for Jags’ WR Brian Thomas, who has 5 receptions with 20+ air yards (3rd). Brisker is worth 0.4 points to the Bears defense according to our metrics.
• Chicago interior defender Gervon Dexter has 15 pressures (9th) but he will be unable to collapse pockets across from RG Brandon Scherff, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Caleb Williams has struggled against middle-field closed coverages and the Bears offensive line has not been able to pick up blitzes this season. However, Williams won’t have to worry about either of those this week. The Jaguars defense has a league-high 84% standard pass rush rate and use two-high safety shells on 68% of opponents dropbacks (3rd-highest). Williams is averaging 11% more yards per attempt when not facing a blitz (7th) and 23% more yards per pass play versus two-high safeties (2nd).
• Jacksonville’s defense is surrendering 0.47 EPA/target to opposing running backs (30th) and are missing starting linebacker Foyesade Oluokun. The screen game will be open for Chicago RB D’Andre Swift, who is averaging 1.46 yards per route run (7th).
• It is better to take the first half over given that games with totals in this range land on 43 and 44 at an 8% rate. Meanwhile, 23 is a more likely first half landing spot than 21 so I don’t mind going over 21.5 points.
• Our model makes this game pick with a predicted total of 47.9 points.

The 1^st-Half Over (21.5) is a 2-Star Best Bet at 22 or less and 1-Star at 22.5 points. If you don’t have 1^st-Half lines, then the game Over is a 2-Star at 45 or less and a 1-Star Best Bet at 45.5 points.