Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – (451) Jacksonville First-Half (+3.5 -115) to -120 odds vs Buffalo

· This will be the first instance we’ve ever seen a team play two consecutive weeks in London giving the Jaguars an edge in my estimation because they won’t be affected by jet lag for a 9:30am ET start. There could be more Buffalo fans than Jacksonville fans in attendance, but I think the difference in travel and time zone advantage is worth about 2 points to the Jaguars.

· Jacksonville will be playing at Tottenham Stadium this week as opposed to Wembley Stadium where they faced the Falcons. Wembley has mushy grass that slows the game down while Tottenham brings in turf for the NFL games. The change in surface alone is worth a point to the scoring conditions.

· Trevor Lawrence will try to take advantage of these improved scoring conditions and Buffalo’s depleted secondary after 2019 first-team All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davoius White suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon rupture last week. The Bills’ other starting CB Christian Benford left early against the Dolphins with a shoulder injury and 2021 first-team All-Pro free safety Jordan Poyer sat out the game.

· Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley has a 12.7-yard average depth of target this season (9th) and he could have a favorable matchup downfield if Benford and/or Poyer are unable to suit up.

· Bills nickleback Taron Johnson is allowing a reception just once in every 12.1 slot cover snaps (5th) and he will contain WR Christian Kirk, who has 202 slot yards this year (2nd).

· Buffalo’s defense is conceding a 44% success rate to tight ends (8th) and they will limit Jacksonville TE Evan Engram, who is averaging 0.26 EPA/target (9th).

· Jaguars RB Travis Etienne is averaging 0.11 EPA/target (4th) and Lawrence will look for him in the screen game as the Bills are surrendering a 50% pass success rate to running backs (25th).

· Buffalo edge defender Von Miller could make his debut on Sunday but it appears he’ll be limited if he does play. Miller ranked 9th in pass-rushing efficiency before his season ended on Thanksgiving last year. However, the Jaguars will have their starting left tackle Cam Robinson coming off his suspension to battle with Miller. Coach McDermott said that DE Greg Rousseau is out and he’s worth 0.4 points.

· Jacksonville’s interior offensive line is responsible for 70% of the pressures this season (3rd-highest) and they have an uphill battle this week. DaQuan Jones leads all interior defenders in pass-rushing efficiency and DT Ed Oliver ranks 6th.

· The Bills put an emphasis on improving the ground game this offseason and it’s paying dividends as they average 0.04 EPA/rush (4th), but Josh Allen will likely air it out more this week as the Jaguars are allowing just a 32% rush success rate (3rd).

· Buffalo RB James Cook is averaging 1.51 yards per route run (4th) but he will be contained as a receiver because Jacksonville’s defense is conceding a league-low 21% success rate when opponents target running backs.

· Josh Allen has a 67% success rate when targeting Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but the duo will be limited on the outside. Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell is conceding 0.78 yards per cover snap (13th) and Darious Williams leads all cornerbacks in coverage grade by PFF. Meanwhile, nickelback Tre Herndon is surrendering 1.81 yards per slot cover snap (2nd-worst) and Bills’ offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey will likely look to line up Diggs on the inside.

· Jacksonville edge rusher Josh Allen had his second game this season with 3 sacks last week, but I doubt he will get to his namesake on the other side of the football as Buffalo LT Dion Dawkins ranks 8th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Bills by 6.0 points, with a predicted total of 48.8 points, but the situation and matchups favor the Jaguars and we want to take advantage of the Bills’ internal clock playing in the morning Eastern Time while Jacksonville’s players have been in England for more than a week and have adapted.