Jacksonville Jaguars @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Dec 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 359
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -13, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Baltimore (-13) over JACKSONVILLE

Gardner Minshew has rightfully regained the starting job in Jacksonville but he’s in trouble this week. There is a hole in the middle of the Jaguars’ offensive line without center Brandon Linder (3rd in pass blocking efficiency) and LG Andrew Norwell (9th in pass blocking efficiency). The absence of Linder and Norwell was not felt to its fullest extent last week because Tennessee’s defense is allergic to rushing the passer, but I expect a different story on Sunday as Pro Bowl interior defender Calais Campbell lines up across from backups. However, there is a slight chance Norwell returns from his forearm injury this week.  Pro Bowl edge defender Matthew Judon was back on the field last Monday night and should dominate this week across from RT Jawaan Taylor, who ranks 56th out of 59 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. Minshew may wish he were still holding a clipboard.

Lamar Jackson is coming off his best game of the season after averaging 6.7 yppp and rushing for 124 yards against the Browns. Jackson and the Ravens’ ground game should have no trouble racking up yards again this week no matter what Jacksonville’s defense does to combat them. The Jaguars have used at least eight defenders in the box more than any team during the past month yet opponents are still averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

Our model makes Baltimore a 15.3-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jaguars
  • Ravens
JAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.5 35.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.5% 53.0%
  • Sack Rate 6.5% 3.6%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.6% 18.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.1% 36.4%
  • NYPP 5.7 7.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 21.7 31.5
  • RB YPR 4.5 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 14.6% 19.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.8% 49.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.7% 48.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.6




Game

  • All Snaps 63.2 66.9
  • Early Down Succ 50.7% 54.9%
  • Succ Rate 48.0% 51.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.1% 42.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 6.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 29.4
  • Run Ratio 34.7% 47.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.1 30.1
  • Game Control -5.9 5.9
 
  • Points 20.1 29.5
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