Game Analysis
Lean – Indianapolis (+6) over WASHINGTON
Andrew Luck looked healthy in his first game back after missing the entirety of last season, even showing some mobility and putting his body on the line for a first down early in the game while taking a hit that got Bengals defender Shawn Williams ejected. There were signs of rust, however, as Luck threw for a pedestrian 5.6 yards per pass play, but he had his team driving with a chance to win the game in the final minutes before a Jack Doyle fumble was returned for a touchdown by the Bengals. Overall, I’m optimistic about Luck going forward especially if starting left tackle Anthony Castanzo is able to suit up on Sunday. Castanzo’s backup J’Marcus Webb is now out for the season after suffering an injury late in last week’s game. Pernell McPhee, Ryan Kerrigan, and Matt Ioannidis all recorded 4 quarterback pressures in week 1 for the Redskins so Castanzo’s health solidifying Indianapolis’s offensive line will be crucial and he says there’s “no question” he’ll play on Sunday despite initially being listed as questionable.
The Redskins looked impressive against the Cardinals in Alex Smith’s debut, achieving our 8th-best offensive grade of the week, and they match up particularly well versus the Colts’ defense this week. Last season, the Indy allowed the most yards per target to opposing running backs in the NFL and they surrendered 54 receiving yards to Joe Mixon last week. Jay Gruden loves throwing to his running backs as Chris Thompson was the league’s most efficient receiver out of the backfield in 2017 according to our numbers and he gained 63 receiving yards and a touchdown in week 1 while new running mate Adrian Peterson also adding 70 receiving yards. I expect the Redskins to find success targeting their running backs on Sunday.
The advanced spread for this game was Redskins -3 and I don’t believe the week 1 performances of these teams justifies a 3-point move. The over-adjustment is likely a function of Washington’s 24-6 opening day win as a slight underdog at Arizona. Teams that win their opening game by more than 10 points and cover the spread by more than 15 points as an underdog are just 6-30 ATS in week 2 against a team that did not cover the spread in week 1. Additionally, Andrew Luck is 19-6-2 against the spread in his career coming off a loss and I think the Colts offense is still underrated.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Colts
- Redskins
Pass
- Pass Plays 43.5 38.5
- Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 54.5%
- Sack Rate 3.4% 6.5%
- Int Rate 4.2% 1.8%
- Deep Pass Rate 9.6% 13.3%
- Big Pass Yards 16.4% 29.4%
- NYPP 5.5 6.7
Rush
- Rush Plays 26.0 21.0
- RB YPR 3.4 4.0
- Stuff Rate 18.0% 30.5%
- Succ Rush Plays 47.3% 53.0%
- Big Rush Yards 21.7% 49.8%
- Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.0
Game
- All Snaps 69.5 59.5
- Early Down Succ 46.9% 57.1%
- Succ Rate 48.9% 54.2%
- Big Yards Rate 17.7% 33.5%
- Yards Per Play 4.7 5.7
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.7%
- Time Per Play (sec) 25.7 30.8
- Run Ratio 38.5% 35.9%
- Starting Field Pos 29.0 27.7
- Game Control 5.7 -5.7
- Points 22.0 21.5