Indianapolis Colts @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 13
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 275
Odds: Tennessee Titans -2.5, Total: 43

Game Analysis

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TENNESSEE (-2.5) vs Indianapolis

  • The Colts surrendered 8.7 yppl last week in Jacksonville but they should be getting some reinforcements back with the pending return of starting edge rusher Kwity Paye and starting nickelback Kenny Moore.
  • However, the Indianapolis defense will not have Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner or starting cornerback Julius Brents. It will be a favorable matchup for Tennessee’s offense averaging 31% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz (4th). The Colts have a 78.2% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
  • Titans’ QB Will Levis should be back on the field and he will target WR DeAndre Hopkins lining up across from Indianapolis CB Jaylon Jones, who is surrendering 1.76 yards per cover snap (4th-worst).
  • Colts RG Will Fries is out for the season after he suffered a lower leg injury last week, which could be an issue in this game as Titans interior defender Jeffery Simmons missed the game before the bye. Simmons led this defense in pass rushing efficiency last season and is trending towards being back on the field.
  • Anthony Richardson is out but Joe Flacco is certainly no worse and we make no adjustment. The Colts like to air it out and Tennessee backup CB Jarvis Brownlee will struggle across from WR Alec Pierce, who leads the NFL with 6 receptions having at least 20 air yards.
  • Indianapolis looks like it will be without RB Jonathan Taylor but WR Michael Pittman has been activated, who are each worth a half point according to our metrics and it’s not likely that Pittman will see his normal amount of snaps.
  • Our model favors the Colts by 1.2, with a predicted total of 44.1 points, but we calculate the fair line at 2.5 points after factoring in the matchups.
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