Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Indianapolis

The market’s opinion on San Francisco is too low after managing just 10 points versus the Cardinals with rookie QB Trey Lance. The 49ers were rated about equal to Green Bay and Seattle (with Russell Wilson) the last two games Jimmy Garoppolo was healthy in weeks 3 and 4. The Colts were underdogs at home to the Seahawks in week 1 and again in week 2 to the Rams, who are about the same quality as the Packers. The 49ers are coming off a bye against a team at least 3 points worse and are only favored by 3.5 points at home with Garoppolo expected to return.

San Francisco’s offensive line ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and should protect Garoppolo in his first game back even with LT Trent Williams out. Garoppolo is averaging 7.2 yppp during his 5 years with Kyle Shanahan and Indianapolis has the worst pass defense in the NFL by our metrics.

Nick Bosa has 5 sacks in 5 games and should add to that tally across from LT Eric Fisher, who ranks last out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass rushing efficiency. Carson Wentz will try to get the ball out fast as the Colts target RBs on 34% of passes but it won’t work against San Francisco’s defense with All-Pro LB Fred Warner, who averages just one target against every 11.3 cover snaps (2nd).

West coast teams are 32-20-1 ATS against teams in the Eastern Time Zone on Sunday/Monday night football since 1989. It is much better for an athlete’s internal clock in the second half to be at 7pm than 10pm for peak performance.

Our model favors the 49ers by 7.0 points, with a predicted total of 43.8 points (adjusted for the wind and rain), and San Francisco is a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less and 1-Star at -4.5 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
49ers

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.14 33.86
Succ Pass Plays 40.3% 55.4%
Sack Rate 6.3% 6.2%
Int Rate 0.8% 3.3%
Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 17.7%
Big Pass Yards 43.7% 37.9%
NYPP 6.84 7.20

Rush

Rush Plays 27.43 26.57
RB YPR 4.56 3.83
Stuff Rate 25.1% 24.8%
Succ Rush Plays 50.3% 47.6%
Big Rush Yards 46.9% 39.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.70 4.03

Game

All Snaps 61.57 60.43
Early Down Succ 45.5% 56.6%
Succ Rate 44.2% 52.3%
Big Yards Rate 45.0% 40.7%
Yards Per Play 5.92 5.83
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 2.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.68 29.48
Run Ratio 44.8% 44.0%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control 1.58 -1.58

Points 24.14 21.29

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	16 – 28 L	-7.55	48.8% / 57.7%	7.3% / 11.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.44 / 9.27	60.0% / 66.7%	13.3% / 14.8%	3.77 / 5.19	71 / 53	60.0% / 69.0%	53.5% / 62.3%	9.9% / 51.0%	4.73 / 7.19	1.4% / 1.9%	42.3% / 50.9%	0.00 / 0.00
2	LA	24 – 27 L	-2.18	46.2% / 58.1%	7.7% / 3.2%	5.6% / 3.3%	6.03 / 8.71	53.8% / 50.0%	23.1% / 21.4%	4.19 / 3.61	65 / 59	51.9% / 59.2%	49.2% / 54.2%	37.2% / 40.6%	5.29 / 6.29	0.0% / 1.7%	40.0% / 47.5%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@TEN	16 – 25 L	-4.29	30.8% / 53.6%	5.1% / 3.6%	0.0% / 7.4%	4.56 / 6.71	61.1% / 37.8%	16.7% / 27.0%	4.83 / 4.86	57 / 65	42.9% / 42.3%	40.4% / 44.6%	30.6% / 39.8%	4.65 / 5.66	0.0% / 1.5%	31.6% / 56.9%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@MIA	27 – 17 W	4.25	35.3% / 51.5%	5.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.18 / 5.09	42.4% / 50.0%	39.4% / 31.3%	4.21 / 2.19	67 / 49	37.3% / 58.8%	38.8% / 51.0%	56.1% / 47.4%	5.21 / 4.14	1.5% / 4.1%	49.3% / 32.7%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@BLT	25 – 31 L	8.82	54.1% / 77.8%	5.4% / 4.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.54 / 9.71	61.5% / 44.0%	23.1% / 24.0%	4.73 / 3.44	63 / 70	58.8% / 71.7%	57.1% / 65.7%	61.7% / 32.4%	8.14 / 7.47	1.6% / 1.4%	41.3% / 35.7%	0.00 / 0.00
6	HST	31 – 3 W	12.03	40.9% / 51.1%	9.1% / 4.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	9.73 / 5.09	30.8% / 34.5%	26.9% / 34.5%	6.69 / 4.28	48 / 74	36.1% / 41.8%	35.4% / 44.6%	65.5% / 24.5%	8.08 / 4.77	0.0% / 1.4%	54.2% / 39.2%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@SF	30 – 18 W	-0.02	25.9% / 37.9%	3.7% / 6.9%	0.0% / 7.4%	5.44 / 5.83	42.4% / 50.0%	33.3% / 20.8%	4.48 / 4.63	60 / 53	31.8% / 53.7%	35.0% / 43.4%	54.0% / 49.3%	4.92 / 5.28	3.3% / 3.8%	55.0% / 45.3%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	41 – 33 W	9.15	55.6% / 41.7%	3.7% / 5.0%	0.0% / 1.8%	11.52 / 5.23	37.0% / 50.0%	33.3% / 20.8%	3.44 / 4.83	54 / 84	50.0% / 50.0%	46.3% / 44.0%	53.6% / 49.3%	7.48 / 5.12	3.7% / 0.0%	50.0% / 28.6%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@PHI	17 – 11 W	2.44	56.7% / 38.5%	0.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.30 / 6.81	44.7% / 57.1%	26.3% / 28.6%	3.08 / 5.36	68 / 54	50.9% / 52.5%	50.0% / 48.1%	23.2% / 52.6%	4.50 / 6.06	0.0% / 0.0%	55.9% / 51.9%	0.00 / 0.00
3	GB	28 – 30 L	-6.58	45.5% / 47.1%	9.1% / 2.9%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.25 / 7.44	52.4% / 52.0%	28.6% / 8.0%	3.00 / 4.00	65 / 59	48.0% / 51.1%	47.7% / 49.2%	17.2% / 41.0%	4.52 / 5.98	1.5% / 0.0%	32.3% / 42.4%	0.00 / 0.00
4	SEA	21 – 28 L	-3.26	45.2% / 30.8%	4.8% / 11.5%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.67 / 4.96	62.1% / 46.4%	10.3% / 28.6%	4.93 / 3.75	71 / 54	61.5% / 43.2%	52.1% / 38.9%	19.3% / 38.6%	5.37 / 4.33	0.0% / 0.0%	40.8% / 51.9%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@ARZ	10 – 17 L	-6.53	29.0% / 45.5%	6.5% / 6.1%	3.4% / 0.0%	6.00 / 6.36	50.0% / 48.1%	21.4% / 29.6%	5.43 / 3.48	59 / 60	45.2% / 52.1%	39.0% / 46.7%	45.6% / 39.9%	5.73 / 5.07	0.0% / 1.7%	47.5% / 45.0%	0.00 / 0.00
7	IND	18 – 30 L	0.02	37.9% / 25.9%	6.9% / 3.7%	7.4% / 0.0%	5.83 / 5.44	50.0% / 42.4%	20.8% / 33.3%	4.63 / 4.48	53 / 60	53.7% / 31.8%	43.4% / 35.0%	49.3% / 54.0%	5.28 / 4.92	3.8% / 3.3%	45.3% / 55.0%	0.00 / 0.00

Indianapolis Colts @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Oct 24

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis