Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Indianapolis (+6.5) over PHILADELPHIA

Lean – Under (47.5)

Carson Wentz will start under center for the first time in 10 months on Sunday, but it remains to be seen if he’s fully healthy, as a torn ACL typically takes 12 months to fully heal. There’s a chance the Eagles rushed Wentz back after Nick Foles managed just 4.9 yards per pass play in the first two weeks. At full health, our numbers expect Wentz to be 2.5 points per game better than Foles (based on career numbers) and significantly better than Foles has been so far this season. Wentz’s improved passing and decision making in Run-Pass Option plays also helps Philadelphia’s ground game as the Eagles gain 4.8 yards per rush with him on the field compared to just 3.8 yards per rush when he has not played. Some of that is due to Wentz’ own running ability but I don’t expect him to be running as much as he normally would. Wentz may not have WR Alshon Jeffery (questionable) for this game, but I think he will find success targeting Zach Ertz and his running backs as Colts rookie Darius Leonard is surrendering 2.49 yards per cover snap, the second-most among linebackers.

According to our metrics, the Indianapolis offense ranks 28th in expected points added on first and second downs but 2nd in expected points added in third downs. Early down success is more predictive moving forward and I expect the Colts offense to regress if they don’t improve on first and second down.

Our model favors Philadelphia by 6.7 points with 47 total points, so there is no line value, but Indianapolis applies to an 83-32-4 ATS early season contrary indicator and this game applies to a 70-32 Under situation. I’ll lean with the Colts and Under based on that angles.

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
Eagles

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.5 38.5
Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 54.5%
Sack Rate 3.4% 6.5%
Int Rate 4.2% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 9.6% 13.3%
Big Pass Yards 16.4% 29.4%
NYPP 5.5 6.7

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 21.0
RB YPR 3.4 4.0
Stuff Rate 18.0% 30.5%
Succ Rush Plays 47.3% 53.0%
Big Rush Yards 21.7% 49.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.0

Game

All Snaps 69.5 59.5
Early Down Succ 46.9% 57.1%
Succ Rate 48.9% 54.2%
Big Yards Rate 17.7% 33.5%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.7 30.8
Run Ratio 38.5% 35.9%
Starting Field Pos 29.0 27.7
Game Control 5.7 -5.7

Points 22.0 21.5

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CIN	23 – 34 L	3.1	56.4% / 60.0%	3.6% / 6.7%	1.9% / 3.6%	5.5 / 7.6	54.5% / 65.0%	22.7% / 20.0%	3.4 / 5.1	77 / 50	53.3% / 64.3%	55.8% / 62.0%	10.0% / 38.8%	4.9 / 6.6	1.3% / 2.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	33.4 / 26.2
2	@WAS	21 – 9 W	8.3	43.8% / 48.9%	3.1% / 6.4%	6.5% / 0.0%	5.5 / 5.7	40.0% / 40.9%	13.3% / 40.9%	3.5 / 3.0	62 / 69	40.5% / 50.0%	41.9% / 46.4%	25.4% / 28.1%	4.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.4%	48.4% / 31.9%	24.7 / 29.3

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	18 – 12 W	-0.9	32.4% / 31.9%	5.4% / 8.5%	2.9% / 2.3%	3.2 / 4.8	53.6% / 44.4%	21.4% / 27.8%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	40.4% / 38.8%	41.5% / 35.4%	20.6% / 49.5%	3.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.7%	22.2 / 35.2
2	@TB	21 – 27 L	-11.1	42.0% / 60.0%	6.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.4 / 11.2	54.2% / 25.0%	20.8% / 41.7%	3.8 / 1.8	74 / 59	48.1% / 48.9%	45.9% / 45.8%	36.2% / 45.3%	5.6 / 7.4	2.7% / 1.7%	32.4% / 40.7%	25.5 / 27.2

Indianapolis Colts @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Sep 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis