Game Analysis

Lean – Indianapolis (+6) over NY GIANTS

· New York can clinch a playoff berth for the first time in six seasons with a win this week.

· Indianapolis will likely be without two starting cornerbacks but Daniel Jones’s first down rate against a standard pass rush is 11 percentage points lower than versus the blitz and the Colts only have a 16% blitz rate (27th).

· Jones will need to attack his matchup in the slot with Pro Bowl nickelback Kenny Moore out. Giants slot receiver Richie James has a 56% success rate (16th) and Indianapolis backup nickelback Julian Blackmon is surrendering 1.60 yards per cover snap in the slot, which is bad.

· New York outside WR Darius Slayton is averaging 0.60 EPA/target (2nd) but he will be neutralized by CB Stephon Gilmore, who ranks 4th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Saquon Barkely should be involved in the receiving game as the Colts are allowing 6.3 yards per target to opposing running backs (28th).

· Indianapolis edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue has 9.5 sacks (18th) but he will be shut down by left tackle Andrew Thomas, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Giants center Jon Feliciano ranks 7th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and he will struggle versus DT DeForest Buckner, who has 46 pressures (8th).

· Nick Foles was sacked 7 times in his first start last week behind a Colts offensive line ranked 25th in pass blocking efficiency.

· New York’s defense ranks 30th in EPA/rush allowed and Indianapolis will want to go to the ground game as much as possible to protect Foles especially since the Giants are getting a piece back in the secondary.

· Adoree’ Jackson ranked 24th in coverage grade before going down in week 11 and he is likely to return to the field on Sunday.

· New York’s pass defense was 16th in EPA/dropback allowed in the first 11 weeks and have ranked 23rd since Jackson went out.

· Our model favors the Giants by 3.3 points with a predicted total of 37.0.