Game Analysis
Lean – NEW ORLEANS (-9) over Indianapolis
Of the Colts 7 best receiving options to start the season, only Jack Doyle and Zach Pascal remain. TY Hilton, Eric Ebron, and Chester Rogers were 1st-2nd-3rd respectively on the team in receiving yards last season and they are all out for this game along with Parris Campbell and Devin Funchess. Jack Doyle has 17 targets the last two weeks but he has not been effective, gaining only 1.45 yards per route run, and WR Zach Pascal will be blanketed by Saints top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Jacoby Brissett does not have the talent to lead a passing game void of competent receivers and I expect Indianapolis to sputter down the stretch. New Orleans has cluster injuries up front with Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins now out for the season but they are still likely to generate a pass rush on Monday night. Braden Smith is one of six tackles to allow 40 pressures and the edge defender on his side, Cameron Jordan, ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency.
The Saints are also dealing with some injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Starting left guard Andrus Peat has been out but Nick Easton has yet to surrender a sack filling in and the backup will need to be in top form across from excellent interior defender Denico Autry, who has a 15% pass rush win rate (8th). Jared Cook is gaining 2.89 yards per route run since returning from injury in week 10 but now it looks like the tight end will miss more time (concussion). New Orleans is targeting running backs on 29.4% of passes (2nd-most) but Drew Brees will need to be careful when looking for Alvin Kamara, as All-Pro Darius Leonard is tied for the lead among linebackers with 4 interceptions.
Sean Payton is 20-7 ATS night games at home and I think the market slightly undervalues the Superdome in this spot. Our model favors the Saints by 10.6 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, and I’ll lean with the Saints at -9.5 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.0%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.2%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
28.8%
36.8%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.4
23.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.8%
27.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.6%
43.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.6%
45.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
60.5
-
Early Down Succ
48.6%
46.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
45.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.0%
40.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
29.0
-
Run Ratio
46.6%
38.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
28.9
-
Game Control
0.5
-0.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.5
41.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.8%
42.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.2%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.1%
43.1%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.2
21.8
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
19.1%
25.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.4%
45.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.7%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
62.7
63.1
-
Early Down Succ
55.9%
46.4%
-
Succ Rate
52.0%
44.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.4%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
26.9
-
Run Ratio
38.4%
34.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.5
26.6
-
Game Control
3.5
-3.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
24 – 30 L |
-6.2 |
44.8% /
52.6% |
6.9% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
8.2 |
66.7% /
57.1% |
15.2% /
23.8% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
62 /
59 |
56.3% /
52.1% |
56.5% /
54.2% |
38.0% /
57.9% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
53.2% /
35.6% |
26.4 /
30.0 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
19 – 17 W |
1.3 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
9.7% /
12.5% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
47.1% /
50.0% |
29.4% /
20.8% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
65 /
56 |
45.8% /
52.3% |
46.2% /
42.9% |
27.8% /
38.4% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
42.9% |
26.5 /
31.5 |
| 3 |
ATL |
27 – 24 W |
8.1 |
60.5% /
61.8% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.9 /
8.9 |
41.7% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
62 /
54 |
53.8% /
53.5% |
53.2% /
57.4% |
34.6% /
35.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
37.0% |
20.9 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
OAK |
24 – 31 L |
-10.8 |
34.8% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
47.8% /
46.9% |
34.8% /
21.9% |
3.5 /
5.9 |
69 /
64 |
36.7% /
46.0% |
39.1% /
45.3% |
45.7% /
38.5% |
5.0 /
5.9 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
50.0% |
28.7 /
23.5 |
| 5 |
@KC |
19 – 13 W |
1.9 |
48.3% /
39.5% |
0.0% /
9.3% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.7 |
68.9% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
35.7% |
4.0 /
2.6 |
74 /
57 |
67.9% /
42.9% |
60.8% /
40.4% |
22.4% /
53.1% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
60.8% /
24.6% |
32.0 /
25.1 |
| 7 |
HOU |
30 – 23 W |
6.0 |
46.3% /
54.1% |
2.4% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
7.8 /
7.9 |
26.9% /
50.0% |
38.5% /
33.3% |
2.4 /
4.2 |
67 /
61 |
37.5% /
58.7% |
38.8% /
52.5% |
42.0% /
40.4% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
38.8% /
39.3% |
25.9 /
31.7 |
| 8 |
DEN |
15 – 13 W |
-2.8 |
44.8% /
28.6% |
13.8% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
58.1% /
50.0% |
29.0% /
21.4% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
60 /
63 |
57.4% /
43.1% |
51.7% /
38.1% |
32.7% /
39.4% |
5.3 /
4.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
51.7% /
44.4% |
21.9 /
28.9 |
| 9 |
@PIT |
24 – 26 L |
0.9 |
44.4% /
38.9% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
5.3 /
5.1 |
51.7% /
32.0% |
24.1% /
36.0% |
4.8 /
3.6 |
65 /
61 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
47.7% /
36.1% |
28.7% /
31.1% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.1% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
41.0% |
35.8 /
30.2 |
| 10 |
MIA |
12 – 16 L |
-4.1 |
37.5% /
36.1% |
2.5% /
8.3% |
7.7% /
3.0% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
41.4% /
26.9% |
31.0% /
38.5% |
3.8 /
2.7 |
69 /
62 |
41.5% /
30.2% |
39.1% /
32.3% |
55.0% /
22.7% |
4.3 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
42.0% /
41.9% |
32.5 /
33.4 |
| 11 |
JAC |
33 – 13 W |
7.1 |
40.7% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
4.1% |
4.2% /
2.1% |
4.6 /
5.7 |
58.3% /
33.3% |
8.3% /
33.3% |
7.3 /
3.2 |
63 /
58 |
56.3% /
41.9% |
50.8% /
41.4% |
52.7% /
28.6% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
15.5% |
24.0 /
30.3 |
| 12 |
@HOU |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
46.2% /
48.4% |
3.8% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
4.7 /
9.6 |
53.8% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
41.7% |
4.5 /
4.1 |
65 /
55 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
50.8% /
47.3% |
17.9% /
59.6% |
4.6 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
43.6% |
25.2 /
26.6 |
| 13 |
TEN |
17 – 31 L |
1.1 |
48.8% /
39.3% |
7.0% /
21.4% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
4.9 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
10.0% |
3.4 /
5.1 |
67 /
58 |
46.3% /
47.6% |
44.8% /
44.8% |
36.3% /
41.8% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
3.4% |
35.8% /
51.7% |
27.5 /
32.8 |
| 14 |
@TB |
35 – 38 L |
4.4 |
29.7% /
62.0% |
2.7% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.6 /
9.3 |
45.5% /
35.7% |
31.8% /
10.7% |
3.0 /
2.7 |
59 /
78 |
32.5% /
53.3% |
35.6% /
52.6% |
47.2% /
42.1% |
5.2 /
6.9 |
1.7% /
1.3% |
37.3% /
35.9% |
35.8 /
27.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
30 – 28 W |
-2.7 |
59.1% /
38.9% |
2.3% /
16.7% |
2.3% /
3.3% |
8.2 /
6.5 |
52.4% /
60.9% |
9.5% /
30.4% |
7.0 /
7.8 |
65 /
59 |
57.7% /
44.4% |
56.9% /
47.5% |
45.5% /
68.4% |
7.8 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
39.0% |
26.4 /
17.9 |
| 2 |
@LA |
9 – 27 L |
-5.8 |
37.8% /
41.9% |
5.4% /
9.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
8.5 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
20.0% |
2.9 /
3.8 |
57 /
61 |
46.5% /
50.0% |
42.1% /
45.9% |
16.4% /
51.3% |
4.3 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
35.1% /
49.2% |
29.8 /
28.8 |
| 3 |
@SEA |
33 – 27 W |
10.4 |
55.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
8.1 |
47.8% /
42.3% |
26.1% /
26.9% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
50 /
76 |
57.9% /
52.6% |
52.0% /
47.4% |
21.1% /
56.7% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
2.0% /
1.3% |
46.0% /
34.2% |
28.9 /
23.5 |
| 4 |
DAL |
12 – 10 W |
1.2 |
42.9% /
44.1% |
14.3% /
2.9% |
3.3% /
3.0% |
4.3 /
6.2 |
59.3% /
45.0% |
18.5% /
15.0% |
4.3 /
2.3 |
62 /
54 |
52.1% /
43.9% |
50.0% /
44.4% |
34.6% /
26.1% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
43.5% /
37.0% |
33.3 /
23.1 |
| 5 |
TB |
31 – 24 W |
6.3 |
55.6% /
39.4% |
0.0% /
18.2% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
4.8 |
29.0% /
50.0% |
19.4% /
13.6% |
3.6 /
4.3 |
67 /
55 |
40.8% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
43.6% |
42.5% /
43.7% |
6.8 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
40.0% |
27.0 /
30.4 |
| 6 |
@JAC |
13 – 6 W |
2.4 |
48.7% /
38.7% |
7.7% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
5.7 /
4.9 |
65.4% /
25.0% |
19.2% /
16.7% |
4.0 /
3.1 |
65 /
55 |
62.0% /
35.0% |
55.4% /
32.7% |
36.5% /
35.8% |
5.0 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
43.6% |
32.1 /
18.1 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
36 – 25 W |
8.2 |
48.7% /
44.6% |
2.6% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
4.2 |
54.3% /
28.6% |
14.3% /
28.6% |
4.3 /
2.4 |
74 /
63 |
54.4% /
49.0% |
51.4% /
42.9% |
42.9% /
11.1% |
5.7 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
47.3% /
11.1% |
39.5 /
26.1 |
| 8 |
ARI |
31 – 9 W |
6.3 |
60.5% /
36.8% |
0.0% /
10.5% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
5.2 |
44.8% /
36.4% |
17.2% /
45.5% |
4.7 /
3.6 |
72 /
49 |
54.2% /
45.7% |
54.2% /
36.7% |
45.7% /
37.1% |
7.1 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
22.4% |
31.2 /
26.1 |
| 10 |
ATL |
9 – 26 L |
-6.7 |
46.2% /
33.3% |
11.5% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
72.7% /
44.1% |
9.1% /
23.5% |
4.7 /
4.2 |
63 /
70 |
63.0% /
37.0% |
50.8% /
38.6% |
10.6% /
38.5% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
17.5% /
48.6% |
26.6 /
36.9 |
| 11 |
@TB |
34 – 17 W |
10.1 |
55.6% /
43.4% |
2.8% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
7.8% |
6.1 /
5.6 |
67.9% /
50.0% |
7.1% /
50.0% |
3.9 /
4.5 |
64 /
61 |
64.6% /
46.8% |
60.9% /
44.3% |
33.2% /
50.9% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
13.1% |
33.2 /
23.5 |
| 12 |
CAR |
34 – 31 W |
6.6 |
58.5% /
50.0% |
4.9% /
10.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
5.8 |
55.6% /
51.7% |
33.3% /
31.0% |
6.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
69 |
63.8% /
52.7% |
57.6% /
50.7% |
43.3% /
45.3% |
7.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
30.5% /
42.0% |
30.7 /
31.3 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
26 – 18 W |
8.3 |
48.4% /
40.7% |
0.0% /
15.3% |
0.0% /
4.0% |
5.9 /
4.4 |
38.9% /
50.0% |
27.8% /
19.2% |
5.3 /
3.4 |
49 /
85 |
52.6% /
43.8% |
44.9% /
43.5% |
48.7% /
6.6% |
5.7 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
36.7% /
30.6% |
35.4 /
30.2 |
| 14 |
SF |
46 – 48 L |
1.2 |
56.1% /
51.3% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
8.5 /
9.1 |
55.6% /
58.3% |
22.2% /
16.7% |
4.3 /
6.8 |
68 /
63 |
57.4% /
55.1% |
55.9% /
54.0% |
51.6% /
70.5% |
6.8 /
8.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
38.1% |
34.8 /
30.5 |
Indianapolis Colts
@ 
New Orleans Saints