Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **NEW ENGLAND (+3 -120) over Indianapolis

• The Patriots run defense ranks 5th by our metrics, and they will force Anthony Richardson to be a passer behind a shaky offensive line.
• Colts RG Dalton Tucker ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency out of 60 qualifying guards, and they might even switch to start 32-year-old Mark Glowinski, who joined the Colts last week and hasn’t been on an NFL team since March.
• Indianapolis starting center Ryan Kelley is out and backup Tanor Bortolini is in concussion protocol so it will be third-string Danny Pinter getting his first start since September 2022.
• New England interior defender Christian Barmore had 49 pressures last year (14th) and landed a sack last week in his second start of this season after missing the first 10 games with blood clots. Barmore has a favorable matchup across from the Colts’ backups on the interior offensive line.
• Richardson is the worst in the NFL with a 30% clean pocket rate and it is not going to improve on Sunday.
• Indianapolis has a yards per attempt against the blitz that is a league-low 76% of their yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush and Richardson will struggle against a Patriots’ defense that has a 39% blitz rate (4th-highest).
• Richardson has a league-high 4.8% turnover-worthy play rate, and he will likely throw at least one interception against New England’s blitz.
• The Patriots’ offense has improved with Drake Maye under center as the rookie is averaging 1.3 more yppp compared to Jacoby Brissett. New England’s offense is 2.5 points better with Maye according to our numbers.
• Our model favors New England by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 41.6 points, and the Patriots apply to a 131-54-6 ATS blowout bounce-back situation based on last week’s ugly loss in Miami.

New England is a 2-Star Best Bet at +2.5 Even or better and 1-Star to +2.5 -110.