Game Analysis

MINNESOTA (-5.5) vs Indianapolis

• The Colts have decided to take the short-term approach rather than developing Anthony Richardson as the second-year quarterback was benched after starting only 23 games since high school. Indianapolis playoff chances will increase to about 60% with a win on Sunday night but would drop to 35% if they lose in Minnesota.
• Richardson has a completion percentage of only 44%, which is the 2nd-lowest in the last 25 seasons, but he is playing quarterback differently than basically anyone we’ve ever seen with the closest comparison being rookie season Josh Allen.
• Richardson’s expected completion percentage last week was just 47% because he’s challenging defenses downfield more than any quarterback. Richardson’s 12.3-yard average depth of target is the highest in the last 25 years and he doesn’t need to complete as many passes if he’s throwing downfield at such a rate.
• Richardson’s 6.3 yppp is better than the NFL average this season, and he is only 0.8 points per game worse than Joe Flacco by EPA since the start of last year. Flacco increases the Colts’ chances of winning each game by 2-3% but Indianapolis may end up long-term regretting not giving more reps to last year’s 4th overall pick.
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has exceeded 100 rushing yards in three of his five games, but he will be limited in this game as the Vikings are allowing a 33% rush success rate (2nd).
• Minnesota’s defense had just a 38% blitz rate in last week’s loss to the Rams and I expect the Vikings to get back to the league-high season rate of 52% on Sunday night. Flacco is averaging only 4.4 yards per attempt against the blitz ranking 38th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks.
• The Indianapolis offensive line ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency but they are down two starters in LT Bernhard Raimann and RG Will Fries. Backup left tackle Blake Freeland will struggle across from Minnesota edge defender Jonathan Greenard, who has 43 pressures (3rd).
• The Colts are averaging 45% more yppp versus Cover 2 than other coverages (5th) and Flacco has a favorable matchup, particularly on the inside against a Vikings defense with the 3rd-highest Cover 2 rate. Indianapolis WR Josh Downs is averaging 2.43 yards per route run in the slot in games with Flacco behind center this year and Minnesota’s nickelbacks are surrendering 1.69 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• The Colts’ defense has a 78% standard pass rush rate (4th-highest) and they should contain Sam Darnold, whose yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is a league-low 74% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz.
• The Vikings lost starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw for the season and backup David Quessenberry was surrendering a 13% pressure rate. However, Minnesota traded for Jacksonville left tackle Cam Robinson, who is allowing a 6.6% pressure rate which isn’t a huge downgrade from Darrisaw conceding a 4.8% pressure rate. Robinson is 0.6 points worse than Darrisaw by our metrics.
• The Vikings yards per attempt against zone coverage is only 88% of the yards per attempt versus man and Darnold’s receivers won’t have as many favorable matchups against an Indianapolis defense with an 86% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest). Colts nickelback Kenny Moore is conceding 0.86 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd) and he will limit WR Justin Jefferson, who is averaging 0.62 EPA/target (8th).
• Furthermore, Indianapolis has a 59% two-high safety rate (8th-highest) and Minnesota’s yppp against two-high is just 82% of the yppp versus single-high (31st).
• Our model favors the Vikings by 9.3 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, but the matchups significantly favor the Colts. I used Minnesota in my spread pool, as the true line including matchups is 6 points.