Game Analysis

Lean – Indianapolis (+4) over MINNESOTA

· Kirk Cousins has thrown a catchable ball on a league-high 65% of deep pass attempts this season, but he will have to work underneath on Sunday as the Colts are conceding just an 11.7% explosive pass-play rate (7th).

· Indianapolis cornerback Stephon Gilmore ranks 7th in coverage grade by PFF and the Vikings will likely move WR Justin Jefferson into the slot because Colts Pro Bowl nickelback Kenny Moore will likely be sidelined. Moore is worth 0.4 points by our numbers.

· Jefferson averages 3.87 yards per route run in the slot, which leads all wide receivers by a wide margin. Tyreek Hill is second, averaging 2.95 yards per route run in the slot.

· Minnesota tight end TJ Hockenson is gaining 1.63 yards per route run (5th) and he will be open on intermediate routes as Indianapolis is allowing 7.7 yards per target to TEs (25th).

· The Vikings should have left tackle Christian Darrisaw back on the field for the first game in a month. Darrisaw ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will shut down Colts edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who has 8.5 sacks (14th).

· Indianapolis interior defender DeForest Buckner has 33 pressures (14th) and he will make a meal of Ezra Cleveland, ranked 47th in pass blocking efficiency out of 51 qualifying guards.

· Minnesota’s defense will get back safety Harrison Smith, who has 5 interceptions (2nd) but missed last week with a neck injury.

· Matt Ryan will work with his slot receiver on crucial downs. Parris Campbell has 59% success rate (9th) and Vikings nickelback Chandon Sullivan is surrendering 1.37 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst).

· Minnesota edge defender Za’Darius Smith ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency and he will be a problem for rookie LT Bernhard Raimann.

· The Vikings are much worse than the Colts in net yards per play at -0.8 on the year while Indianapolis is at -0.1 net yppl including the two starts by Sam Ehlinger.

· Our model makes Minnesota a 2.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.8 points.