Indianapolis Colts @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Dec 13
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 167
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders +3, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under 51 – LAS VEGAS (+3) vs Indianapolis

The Raiders escaped New York with a win last week and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ (now fired) play call in the final minute was especially egregious because Derek Carr has destroyed blitzes this year – averaging 7.9 yards per pass play compared to 6.6 yppp against a standard pass rush. However, the Colts blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NFL and both of Carr’s top receiving threats will be blanketed. Darren Waller had a career-high 200 yards last week, accounting for more than half of Carr’s passing yards, but Indianapolis hasn’t conceded more than 65 yards to a tight end this year (and just 1 TD to a TE all season). Kenny Moore is conceding just 0.94 yards per slot cover snap (4th) and the nickelback will limit Hunter Renfrow on the inside. Josh Jacobs is banged-up and likely will find it difficult to find running lanes against a Colts rush defense ranked 9th.

Philip Rivers has thrown for multiple scores and at least 250 passing yards in five of his last seven games, but Rivers could struggle in this matchup. Rivers likes to get the ball out quickly and prefers when defenses blitz (he averages nearly 8 yppp against the blitz this season). However, Rivers is 0.9 yppp worse versus a standard rush and the Raiders only blitz on 20% of opponents’ passing attempts (30th).

Our model makes Indianapolis a 1.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.6 points but I’ll lean under due to the matchups.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colts
  • Raiders
IND
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.4 34.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.3% 47.1%
  • Sack Rate 3.4% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.7% 19.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.0% 41.2%
  • NYPP 7.2 6.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.3 26.3
  • RB YPR 3.8 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 20.1% 21.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.0% 46.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.1% 32.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 65.8 60.7
  • Early Down Succ 51.3% 49.7%
  • Succ Rate 48.2% 47.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.6% 39.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 28.8
  • Run Ratio 42.8% 43.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.5 25.7
  • Game Control 1.1 -1.1
 
  • Points 27.3 22.8
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