Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Indianapolis

· Anthony Richardson exited last game after his third injury in five weeks. Richardson is gaining 0.06 EPA/play (14th) while backup Gardner Minshew is averaging 0.04 EPA/play (16th) so there isn’t a major difference between the two.

· However, Minshew is certainly less mobile and the Indianapolis ground game is in trouble on Sunday as the Jaguars are conceding only a 32.3% rush success rate (4th).

· Jacksonville’s defense will likely have starting LB Devin Lloyd back on the field, which is a significant upgrade given that backup Chad Muma had a 20% missed tackle rate filling in the last two weeks, which ranks 46th out of 48 qualifying linebackers.

· Edge rusher Dawuane Smoot was leading the Jaguars in sacks last season when he suffered an Achilles tear in December, and he could be back in uniform this week as well.

· Jacksonville’s offense is getting into 3rd & Long (7+) on just 36% of their series (3rd-lowest) and they will be able to stay ahead of the chains this week against the Indianapolis defense.

· The Colts are down to their 4th option at outside cornerback after benching Darrell Baker and with Dallis Flowers now scheduled to miss the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. DeAndre Hopkins averaged 0.81 more yards per route run against the Indianapolis secondary last week than he did in his first four games. Calvin Ridley has a 58% success rate (19th) and he will have a favorable matchup across from CB Jaylon Jones.

· Colts’ defensive coordinator Gus Bradley calls Cover 3 coverage at the highest rate in the NFL and Trevor Lawrence is averaging over 10 yards per attempt against Cover 3 this year. Ridley is gaining 4.64 yards per route run versus Cover 3.

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, and the Colts apply to a 29-87-2 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s upset win.

Jacksonville is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4.5 or less.