Game Analysis
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Lean – Under (46) – HOUSTON (-5) over Indianapolis
- Houston’s offense had only a 28% success rate on first down last week (6th-worst) in large part because they were featuring RB Joe Mixon and the ground game, which was averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.
- CJ Stroud had his worst game of the season against the Packers, throwing for only 86 yards. Stroud is averaging 6.0 yppp this year compared to 7.0 yppp as a rookie.
- Texans’ LG Kenyon Green was responsible for four of the 10 pressures allowed by the Houston offensive line last week and he is likely to continue to struggle if the Colts get back Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner.
- Stroud averaged 0.36 EPA/play when kept clean last week, but it required a 21% scramble rate and Houston’s offense just isn’t firing on all cylinders since losing WR Nico Collins, who leads the NFL with 0.86 EPA/target. Stroud is averaging -0.04 EPA/play the last two games without Collins (26th).
- Texans WR Tank Dell hasn’t been able to produce like Collins and he has a battle this week when lined up across from CB Samuel Womack, who is allowing a league-low 0.31 yards per cover snap.
- Houston wide receiver Stefon Diggs has a 57% success rate (18th) with 55% of his routes coming in the slot but I think the Texans will motion Diggs outside to avoid Indianapolis nickelback Kenny Moore, who is allowing just 0.72 yards per slot cover snap (4th). The Colts are surrendering 24% more yppp against motion than no motion (31st) and Houston’s offense has a 69% motion rate (5th-highest).
- The Indianapolis offensive line conceded only 4 pressures last week. Colts LT Bernhard Raimann ranks 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency and he will likely limit edge defender Will Anderson, who has 29 pressures (5th).
- However, Indianapolis backup RG Dalton Tucker could struggle versus interior defender Tim Settle, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.
- Our model favors the Texans by 5.0 with a predicted total of 44.0 points.