Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Indianapolis (+1) over HOUSTON

Lean – Over (39.5)

· The Colts’ offense averaged 4.1 yppl (23rd) in Anthony Richardson’s first career start and I expect them to get noticeably better in the rookie’s second game.

· Non-Richardson Indianapolis runners gained only 25 yards on 16 rushes against the Jaguars as RBs Deon Jackson and Evan Hull are clearly below replacement level. This week, the Colts will have Zack Moss starting next to Richardson in the backfield.  Zack Moss has a career 4.3 yards per carry average and is a capable rusher.

· Richardson is clearly more comfortable throwing right as only 16% of his passes were to the left. This will serve Richarson well on Sunday attacking Texans CB Derek Stingley, who ranked 79th in PFF coverage grade last season out of the 86 CBs with at least 300 cover snaps and he allowed 10.0 yards per target in week 1.

· Houston safety Jalen Pitre was taken to a local hospital after suffering a bruised lung and safety Jimmie Ward is not practicing either due to a hip injury. Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen is known for picking on matchups and will certainly attack 3rd-stringer MJ Stewart.

· Overall, I liked Steichen’s aggressiveness in week 1 as the Colts ranked 2nd in situation-neutral pace by our metrics and 8th in first-down pass play rate.

· Houston’s offensive line is without three projected starters from training camp and rookie CJ Stroud faced a 46% pressure rate in his debut. Backups Jarrett Patterson, Josh Jones, and George Fant started and Fant went down to injury – forcing the Texans 9th offensive lineman Michael Deiter to come in and surrender a sack in just 15 pass-blocking snaps. Fant will try gut through a right shoulder stinger this week, but this offensive line looks awful.

· The defensive line is the strength of this Indianapolis defense, particularly on the interior where DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart combined for 6 pressures in week 1. The Colts have a better defensive line than the Ravens and should give Stroud similar problems in week 2.

· The Texans’ best offense was throwing to Robert Woods lined up on the inside, where he gained 3.67 yards per route run, from the slot (3rd), but nickelback Kenny Moore is the best defender in the Indianapolis secondary and Woods was not nearly as effective lined up as a boundary receiver.

· Houston’s receiving corps was already ranked 31st by our metrics heading into the season and they just put starting WR Noah Brown on injured reserve with a groin injury.

· Our model favors the Colts by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 42.7 points, and Indy applies to a 23-0 ATS week 2 situation. Indianapolis is a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better (Strong Opinion to -2).