Indianapolis Colts @

Houston Texans

Sun, Sep 11
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Houston Texans +7, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Over (44) – Indianapolis at HOUSTON

Strong Opinion – 6-pt Teaser – Cleveland (+8.5) with Indianapolis (-2) at +7.5 and -2.5 or better

Lean Indianapolis (-8)

· The Indianapolis offense is better with Matt Ryan and will play faster after finishing 31st in pace a season ago.

· “It’s a mentality,” Reich said. “It’s a confidence. It’s a ‘We’ve got to get up and play.’ We are dictating the tempo from the huddle to the ball, and we are going. [Matt Ryan] came in talking about that, and he told me at the start. He said, ‘I’m going to push the tempo,’ and I said, ‘We’ll follow your lead. Go.’ That is what we have done.”

· The Texans defense ranks last in our talent ratings after losing their best player safety Justin Reid.

· Lovie Smith was already a below average defensive play caller before taking on the added head coach responsibilities so he will likely get even worse in 2022.

· Houston’s defense finished 31st in yards per play last year and now are clearly inferior. Our metrics have them rated worst in the NFL by about a half point.

· Davis Mills averaged 5.8 yards per pass play in 2021 (25th) and the Texans should be better offensively in his second season under center as QBs historically make their largest jump in production from their rookie season to year 2.

· The Colts added some talent on defense in the offseason, namely Pro Bowl CB Stephon Gilmore and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue (3.6 pressure per game in 2021), but they are downgrading at defensive coordinator going from Matt Eberflus to Gus Bradley.

· Indianapolis’ defense looked better than it was last season because they averaged 1.9 takeaways per game (2nd), which will almost certainly regress in 2022.

· Our model has the Colts favored by 9.1 with a predicted total of 48.9 points. 

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 45 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Colts
  • Texans
IND
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.00 26.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.8% 57.7%
  • Sack Rate 7.3% 11.5%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.2% 30.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 9.6% 56.7%
  • NYPP 5.44 9.27



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.00 27.00
  • RB YPR 3.46 5.95
  • Stuff Rate 13.3% 14.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 60.0% 66.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 10.6% 40.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.77 5.19




Game

  • All Snaps 71.00 53.00
  • Early Down Succ 60.0% 69.0%
  • Succ Rate 53.5% 62.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 9.9% 51.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.73 7.19
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 1.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.17 27.51
  • Run Ratio 42.3% 50.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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