Game Analysis
HOUSTON (-3.5) vs Indianapolis
Deshaun Watson suffered an ankle injury last week that could affect his mobility, which couuld be detrimental to Houston’s offense given that Watson is adding 1.7 points per game on the ground with his legs and may be hesitant to scramble. However, Indianapolis has some of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL and Watson targets his wide receivers on more than two-thirds of his passes. I expect DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Still, and Will Fuller (if he is able to suit up) to all have productive games tonight. Watson may not be able to run but Houston’s running backs are averaging 5.0 ypr and should exploit the Colts 25th-rated rush defense.
Jacoby Brissett will be happy to have big-play WR TY Hilton back in uniform tonight, as Hilton leads the team with 1.95 yards per route run. Indianapolis targets tight ends on 29.9% of passes but Eric Ebron is banged-up and Jack Doyle is unlikely to be effective. The Texans allow only 6.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th). Marlon Mack is out for tonight but Jordan Wilkins should return and the Colts third-string running back Jonathan Williams forced 6 missed tackles in 13 carries last week. I do not expect the Indianapolis 4th-rated ground game to suffer without Mack, especially in this matchup versus Houston’s 26th-ranked rush defense.
The Texans are missing All-Pro DE JJ Watt and are dealing with cluster injuries in the secondary. Overall, Houston is being downgraded by 3 points assuming Deshaun Watson’s mobility is hampered. Our model favors the Texans by 2.4 points with a predicted total of 50.8 points but I’m going to pass on the over due to a 745-536-16 Under situation that is an even better 137-62-2 Under in recent years. I’ll pass this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
37.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
43.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
15.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.0%
32.6%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.0
22.3
-
RB YPR
4.4
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
29.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.9%
43.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.6%
47.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
65.6
59.5
-
Early Down Succ
50.3%
45.8%
-
Succ Rate
48.4%
44.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.9%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
29.3
-
Run Ratio
47.3%
37.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
28.9
-
Game Control
0.1
-0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.5
40.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.0%
47.1%
-
Sack Rate
8.7%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
19.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.4%
37.9%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.9
21.9
-
RB YPR
4.8
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
20.3%
20.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.3%
43.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.6%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.1
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
64.4
62.2
-
Early Down Succ
53.5%
45.7%
-
Succ Rate
51.4%
45.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.7%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.2
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
35.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.4
27.5
-
Game Control
-1.1
1.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
24 – 30 L |
-6.2 |
44.8% /
52.6% |
6.9% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.0 /
8.2 |
66.7% /
57.1% |
15.2% /
23.8% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
62 /
59 |
56.3% /
52.1% |
56.5% /
54.2% |
38.0% /
57.9% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
53.2% /
35.6% |
26.4 /
30.0 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
19 – 17 W |
1.3 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
9.7% /
12.5% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
47.1% /
50.0% |
29.4% /
20.8% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
65 /
56 |
45.8% /
52.3% |
46.2% /
42.9% |
27.8% /
38.4% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
42.9% |
26.5 /
31.5 |
| 3 |
ATL |
27 – 24 W |
8.1 |
60.5% /
61.8% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.9 /
8.9 |
41.7% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
62 /
54 |
53.8% /
53.5% |
53.2% /
57.4% |
34.6% /
35.0% |
6.1 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
37.0% |
20.9 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
OAK |
24 – 31 L |
-10.8 |
34.8% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
47.8% /
46.9% |
34.8% /
21.9% |
3.5 /
5.9 |
69 /
64 |
36.7% /
46.0% |
39.1% /
45.3% |
45.7% /
38.5% |
5.0 /
5.9 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
33.3% /
50.0% |
28.7 /
23.5 |
| 5 |
@KC |
19 – 13 W |
1.9 |
48.3% /
39.5% |
0.0% /
9.3% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.7 |
68.9% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
35.7% |
4.0 /
2.6 |
74 /
57 |
67.9% /
42.9% |
60.8% /
40.4% |
22.4% /
53.1% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
60.8% /
24.6% |
32.0 /
25.1 |
| 7 |
HOU |
30 – 23 W |
6.0 |
46.3% /
54.1% |
2.4% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
7.8 /
7.9 |
26.9% /
50.0% |
38.5% /
33.3% |
2.4 /
4.2 |
67 /
61 |
37.5% /
58.7% |
38.8% /
52.5% |
42.0% /
40.4% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
38.8% /
39.3% |
25.9 /
31.7 |
| 8 |
DEN |
15 – 13 W |
-2.8 |
44.8% /
28.6% |
13.8% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.7 |
58.1% /
50.0% |
29.0% /
21.4% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
60 /
63 |
57.4% /
43.1% |
51.7% /
38.1% |
32.7% /
39.4% |
5.3 /
4.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
51.7% /
44.4% |
21.9 /
28.9 |
| 9 |
@PIT |
24 – 26 L |
0.9 |
44.4% /
38.9% |
13.9% /
2.8% |
3.2% /
2.9% |
5.3 /
5.1 |
51.7% /
32.0% |
24.1% /
36.0% |
4.8 /
3.6 |
65 /
61 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
47.7% /
36.1% |
28.7% /
31.1% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.1% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
41.0% |
35.8 /
30.2 |
| 10 |
MIA |
12 – 16 L |
-4.1 |
37.5% /
36.1% |
2.5% /
8.3% |
7.7% /
3.0% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
41.4% /
26.9% |
31.0% /
38.5% |
3.8 /
2.7 |
69 /
62 |
41.5% /
30.2% |
39.1% /
32.3% |
55.0% /
22.7% |
4.3 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
42.0% /
41.9% |
32.5 /
33.4 |
| 11 |
JAC |
33 – 13 W |
7.1 |
40.7% /
42.9% |
11.1% /
4.1% |
4.2% /
2.1% |
4.6 /
5.7 |
58.3% /
33.3% |
8.3% /
33.3% |
7.3 /
3.2 |
63 /
58 |
56.3% /
41.9% |
50.8% /
41.4% |
52.7% /
28.6% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
15.5% |
24.0 /
30.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NO |
28 – 30 L |
2.7 |
38.9% /
59.1% |
16.7% /
2.3% |
3.3% /
2.3% |
6.5 /
8.2 |
60.9% /
52.4% |
30.4% /
9.5% |
7.8 /
7.0 |
59 /
65 |
44.4% /
57.7% |
47.5% /
56.9% |
68.4% /
45.5% |
7.0 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
32.3% |
17.9 /
26.4 |
| 2 |
JAC |
13 – 12 W |
3.3 |
36.4% /
40.5% |
12.1% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
56.7% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
14.3% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
63 /
58 |
46.8% /
44.2% |
46.0% /
41.4% |
35.0% /
40.6% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.6% /
36.2% |
26.8 /
26.0 |
| 3 |
@LAC |
27 – 20 W |
-2.4 |
58.3% /
41.2% |
5.6% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
5.7 |
26.3% /
38.9% |
26.3% /
16.7% |
2.1 /
4.1 |
55 /
69 |
45.5% /
41.2% |
47.3% /
40.6% |
57.7% /
42.6% |
6.8 /
5.3 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
34.5% /
26.1% |
24.2 /
27.7 |
| 4 |
CAR |
10 – 16 L |
-2.3 |
40.0% /
51.4% |
15.0% /
8.1% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.5 |
68.2% /
35.7% |
18.2% /
25.0% |
6.2 /
3.4 |
62 /
65 |
54.0% /
43.1% |
50.0% /
44.6% |
36.0% /
28.3% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
1.6% /
4.6% |
35.5% /
43.1% |
29.6 /
29.9 |
| 5 |
ATL |
53 – 32 W |
5.3 |
72.7% /
41.7% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
12.9 /
6.6 |
55.9% /
30.0% |
11.8% /
35.0% |
4.9 /
2.9 |
67 /
68 |
61.1% /
32.0% |
64.2% /
38.2% |
58.1% /
27.6% |
8.8 /
5.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
29.4% |
26.5 /
28.7 |
| 6 |
@KC |
31 – 24 W |
-2.6 |
59.5% /
44.4% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
4.8% /
2.9% |
6.7 /
7.1 |
56.1% /
45.5% |
12.2% /
18.2% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
83 /
47 |
62.1% /
44.7% |
57.8% /
44.7% |
25.2% /
42.1% |
5.7 /
6.6 |
1.2% /
2.1% |
49.4% /
23.4% |
32.4 /
27.2 |
| 7 |
@IND |
23 – 30 L |
-6.0 |
54.1% /
46.3% |
8.1% /
2.4% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
7.8 |
50.0% /
26.9% |
33.3% /
38.5% |
4.2 /
2.4 |
61 /
67 |
58.7% /
37.5% |
52.5% /
38.8% |
40.4% /
42.0% |
6.4 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
39.3% /
38.8% |
31.7 /
25.9 |
| 8 |
OAK |
27 – 24 W |
-2.8 |
57.1% /
46.7% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
9.5 |
43.8% /
56.5% |
18.8% /
21.7% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
74 /
53 |
54.4% /
53.7% |
51.4% /
50.9% |
36.6% /
56.1% |
5.2 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.2% /
43.4% |
22.2 /
23.1 |
| 9 |
@JAC |
26 – 3 W |
8.4 |
62.1% /
39.2% |
3.4% /
7.8% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
6.7 /
5.5 |
50.0% /
60.0% |
20.6% /
6.7% |
6.4 /
4.9 |
63 /
66 |
58.8% /
47.2% |
55.6% /
43.9% |
42.0% /
35.4% |
6.5 /
5.4 |
1.6% /
3.0% |
54.0% /
22.7% |
35.0 /
24.0 |
| 11 |
@BAL |
7 – 41 L |
-14.8 |
40.5% /
60.7% |
18.9% /
3.6% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
3.0 /
8.1 |
45.0% /
47.2% |
15.0% /
16.7% |
6.1 /
7.3 |
57 /
64 |
48.8% /
55.8% |
42.1% /
53.1% |
37.9% /
52.1% |
4.1 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
56.3% |
28.2 /
36.2 |
Indianapolis Colts
@ 
Houston Texans