Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Indianapolis (-2.5/-3) over DETROIT

Matt Stafford’s average depth of target has been above 10 yards every week with Kenny Golladay in the lineup and last week Stafford completed 14 of his 16 attempts with 10+ air yards for 279 yards and a touchdown. Golladay was the top target on 10+ air yard throws and he hauled in all 5 of his contested targets. However, Colts’ CB Xavier Rhodes is surrendering just one reception every 15.4 cover snaps (9th) and he will make it difficult for Golladay on Sunday. Lions’ slot receiver Danny Amendola may also struggle on the inside as nickelback Kenny Moore is conceding just 0.82 yards per slot cover snap (3rd).

The Colts have played the easiest schedule in the NFL according to our metrics and none of their opponents have a positive point differential, including the 5-win Browns and Bears. However, this isn’t the week to fade Indianapolis as they are coming off a bye, which is worth 1.1 points by our numbers, and the Colts apply to a 51-11 ATS road favorite off a bye situation. The extra week of rest should allow Pro Bowl LB Darius Leonard to be back in uniform on Sunday after missing the previous two games with a groin injury.

Our model favors the Colts by 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 51.3 points, and the situation is favorable.

Team Stats
Game Log

Colts
Lions

IND

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.0 28.0
Succ Pass Plays 57.1% 42.9%
Sack Rate 3.2% 11.2%
Int Rate 2.8% 7.3%
Deep Pass Rate 17.0% 22.2%
Big Pass Yards 40.4% 38.1%
NYPP 8.2 4.8

Rush

Rush Plays 31.0 23.3
RB YPR 3.9 3.9
Stuff Rate 19.2% 15.2%
Succ Rush Plays 37.4% 39.8%
Big Rush Yards 34.1% 30.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.1

Game

All Snaps 64.0 51.3
Early Down Succ 52.3% 44.0%
Succ Rate 47.6% 40.8%
Big Yards Rate 36.7% 34.5%
Yards Per Play 6.0 4.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.9 30.4
Run Ratio 49.0% 45.2%
Starting Field Pos 35.1 23.3
Game Control 8.2 -8.2

Points 28.0 15.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	20 – 27 L	2.5	55.3% / 62.5%	2.1% / 16.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	7.6 / 6.3	36.4% / 39.1%	27.3% / 17.4%	4.0 / 4.0	69 / 47	53.7% / 52.8%	49.3% / 51.1%	30.1% / 34.9%	6.4 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.9% / 48.9%	27.0 / 31.0
2	MIN	28 – 11 W	9.3	51.9% / 24.1%	7.4% / 10.3%	4.0% / 11.5%	7.5 / 3.3	50.0% / 38.9%	17.5% / 11.1%	3.8 / 4.4	67 / 47	56.6% / 32.4%	50.7% / 29.8%	34.5% / 41.7%	5.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	59.7% / 38.3%	44.6 / 20.5
3	NYJ	36 – 7 W	12.6	64.0% / 41.9%	0.0% / 6.5%	0.0% / 10.3%	9.4 / 4.9	25.8% / 41.4%	12.9% / 17.2%	3.8 / 3.8	56 / 60	46.5% / 46.8%	42.9% / 41.7%	45.6% / 26.9%	6.3 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	55.4% / 48.3%	33.6 / 18.4

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	23 – 27 L	5.9	51.2% / 45.9%	2.3% / 2.7%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.7 / 5.8	44.8% / 60.7%	13.8% / 14.3%	4.8 / 5.3	72 / 65	52.7% / 59.6%	48.6% / 52.3%	50.2% / 35.8%	5.9 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 43.1%	27.0 / 29.0
2	@GB	21 – 42 L	-5.7	45.9% / 54.8%	10.8% / 3.2%	3.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 7.4	61.9% / 57.1%	14.3% / 8.6%	4.2 / 7.4	58 / 66	53.3% / 58.8%	51.7% / 56.1%	37.1% / 58.2%	5.3 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	36.2% / 53.0%	20.0 / 28.0
3	@ARI	26 – 23 W	0.2	51.4% / 55.6%	11.4% / 2.8%	0.0% / 8.6%	6.6 / 7.4	29.6% / 55.6%	33.3% / 14.8%	3.3 / 4.0	62 / 63	42.9% / 57.7%	41.9% / 55.6%	35.4% / 34.5%	5.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	43.5% / 42.9%	36.4 / 19.4

Indianapolis Colts @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Nov 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis