Game Analysis

Lean – Indianapolis (+11) over DALLAS

· Indianapolis has only been beaten by more than a touchdown in two of Matt Ryan’s ten starts and they could be competitive again on Sunday night.

· Jonathan Taylor is averaging 24.7 touches per game since Jeff Saturday became head coach and he will get plenty of touches again in this game. The Cowboys rush defense ranks 26th by our metrics and Dallas has struggled at times to contain running backs out of the backfield allowing 6.0 yards per target.

· Colts slot receiver Paris Campbell has a 59% success rate (12th) and Ryan will look for him on the crucial downs versus Cowboys backup nickelback DaRon Bland, who is allowing 1.02 more yards per slot cover snap than starter Jourdan Lewis.

· The main concern for the Indianapolis offense will be Ryan’s lack of mobility against a Dallas pass rush leading the NFL with an 11.5% sack rate.

· The Cowboys are averaging 0.004 EPA/rush but the Colts are conceding only 3.9 yards per carry (5th) and this game will have to be won with Dak Prescott’s passing.

· Indianapolis is surrendering 8.2 yards per target to tight ends (26th) and they will struggle against TE Dalton Schultz, who is averaging 1.72 yards per route run in the seven weeks he wasn’t out for the majority or entirety of the game (4th).

· Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb is averaging 2.46 yards per route run in the slot (5th) and he will most likely line up against backup nickelback Brandon Facyson as Colts Pro Bowl nickelback Kenny Moore is dealing with a shin injury.

· Cowboys left tackle Tyler Smith surrendered 3 quarterback hits last week and the rookie could struggle versus edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who ranks 19th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model makes Dallas an 8.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.3.