Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-8) vs Indianapolis

· Baltimore has ruled out WR Odell Beckham, RB Justice Hill, CB Marlon Humphrey, LT Ronnie Stanley, C Tyler Linderbaum, edge defender Odafe Oweh, and S Marcus Williams for this game. Seven starters on both sides of the ball are worth 4 points by our metrics.

· Beckham is averaging 0.96 EPA/target this season. However, I expect Lamar Jackson to attack the Indianapolis outside cornerback even without Beckham. Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley had 101 receiving yards versus the Colts, Texans WR Nico Collins had 146, and Ravens WR Rashod Bateman is next in line versus cornerback Darrell Baker, who ranks last among 74 qualifiers in PFF coverage grade.

· Baltimore’s new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is protecting Jackson even without two starters on the offensive line. Jackson saw a career-low 9.1% pressure rate last week in Cincinnati.

· Jackson averaged a league-high 2.96 seconds time to throw during his first four seasons as a starter but is down to 2.60 seconds under Monken.

· Ravens TE Mark Andrews had a 63% success rate when targeted last week and the Pro Bowler is unlikely to slow down on Sunday as the Colts were one of 8 defenses in 2022 to surrender at least 8 yards per target to tight ends.

· Anthony Richardson was averaging 0.02 EPA/play (18th) to start his career mostly utilizing his legs under a great scheme from head coach Shane Steichen. Gardner Minshew gained 7.7 yppp last year with Steichen in Philadelphia and I don’t think he’s a downgrade at quarterback from the rookie.

· Indianapolis is averaging 0.42 EPA/play when targeting TE Kylen Granson, but the Ravens allowed just 6.4 yards per target to TEs last season (8th) and tight ends have gained only 25 yards on 9 targets so far in 2023 against Baltimore’s defense.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 9.0 with a predicted total of 43.6.