Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Houston Team Total Under (21.5 -115) to -125 odds

Note: Some books have 23.5 and TT Under is good at 23.5 to -165

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Under 37.5 at 37 or more.

Lean – TENNESSEE (+5.5) over Houston

Lean – Under (37.5)

• The market is overrating Houston’s offense with Davis Mills after the insane comeback last week. The Texans were down to just a 2% win probability in the fourth quarter. Mills is averaging 0.9 yppp fewer than CJ Stroud, even after last week’s game.
• The Titans’ defense is underrated because they’ve been without interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who leads the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency. Simmons is scheduled to return this week and I expect him to play about half the snaps.
• Tennessee’s allowed 0.23 EPA/play in the last month, with interior defender Jeffery Simmons sidelined after allowing 0.08 EPA/play in the first 6 games with Simmons.
• The Titans’ offense will be getting a boost from WR Calvin Ridley, who missed the last three games. Ridley is averaging 0.34 more EPA/target than his backup, Chimere Dike.
• Houston’s defense has a 42% pressure rate (4th), and Cam Ward will have to get the ball out quickly as Tennessee’s offensive line ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Our model favors the Texans by 5.4 points, with a predicted total of just 32.3. Tennessee applies to a 104-33-2 ATS contrary indicator that plays on bad teams have underperformed against the spread. But rather than trust the Titans’ offense we prefer the Houston Team Total Under.

The Houston Team Total Under is a Strong Opinion Under 21.5 to -125 odds (or Under 23.5 to -165).

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is the game Under 37.5 at 37 or more.