Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Houston (+3.5) over TENNESSEE

· Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to be under center this week so we will get rookie Malik Willis at the helm once again. Willis is averaging only 3.2 yppp and is at least 4 points worse than Tannehill.

· Houston edge defender Jerry Hughes ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency and will be a thorn in Willis’s side. Tennessee LT Dennis Daley and RT Nicholas Petit-Frere have allowed 76 pressures in 2022, the second-most of a tackle tandem which is damning because the Titans only have a 50.7% pass play percentage (28th).

· Willis started against the Texans in week 8 and was only asked to drop back on 14 occasions and I do not expect anything different for this game especially with starting center Ben Jones out with a concussion.

· Derrick Henry has eclipsed 200 rushing yards in his four previous games against Houston rush defense, who are allowing a 44% success rate (27th).

· Tennessee’s rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo is averaging 2.69 yards per route run over the last month leading all TEs and Houston’s Jordan Akins is 10th among tight ends in yards per route run since week 12.

· Okonkwo and Akins should be the focal point of their respective passing offenses as the Texans are allowing 7.9 yards per target to TEs (24th) and the Titans are surrendering 8.3 yards per target (27th).

· Davis Mills will hope to have one of his starting WRs Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins back because the screens he normally likes won’t be available. Houston’s offense targets running backs on 22% of passes (6th-most) but Tennessee’s defense is conceding only 4.9 yards per target to RBs (6th).

· The Texans are trying to use Jeff Driskel as a read option threat to spark the ground game but Houston’s offensive line blocks for an average of 0.8 yards before contact per rush this season, the worst in the NFL. Furthermore, the Titans are allowing a league-low -0.138 EPA/rush in 2022.

· Tennessee’s defense should have back edge defender Denico Autry, who ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency. However, Autry will have a tough matchup especially if he isn’t at full strength. Texans left tackle LT Laremy Tunsil ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· The Titans will generate their pass rush up the middle. Houston’s interior offensive line is surrendering 1.2 sacks per game, and I think DT Jeffrey Simmons will get to Mills at least once as his 46 pressures ranks 6th.

· Our model makes Tennessee a 2.3-point favorite, with a predicted total of 36.1 points, and Houston. There is some line value to go along with a 47-9-2 ATS situation that plays on teams that have lost 7 or more consecutive games but are still playing competitive football and an 82-34-3 ATS same-season division revenge dog situation.

Houston is a Strong Opinion at +3 Even odds or better.